Understanding Momentum and Reversal∗
Bryan Kelly
Yale University and
AQR Capital Management
Tobias Moskowitz
Yale University and
AQR Capital Management
Seth Pruitt
Arizona State University
August 16, 2019
Abstract
Stock momentum, long-term reversal, and other price trend characteristics predict
future realized betas. This helps explain why these characteristics predict returns—
because they capture time-varying risk compensation. We formalize this argument
with a conditional factor pricing model. Using instrumented principal components
analysis, we estimate latent factors with time-varying factor loadings that depend on
observable firm characteristics. Momentum and long-term reversal alphas are small
and insignificant once we account for common risk factors in this way.
Keywords: momentum, reversal, factor model, conditional betas, conditional expected returns, IPCA


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