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Table of Contents
Eurosummit ...................................................... Page 03
ECB Preview .................................................... Page 06
Tentative progress from Italy ......................... Page 11
Euroland Inflation ............................................ Page 14
UK: Q2 national accounts ............................... Page 16
Sweden rates ................................................. Page 20
Czech Republic ................................................. Page 23
Rate Views ...................................................... Page 29
The Eurosummit came to conclusions—on Greece, bank recapitalization, the
EFSF and fiscal governance—which in our opinion slightly exceeded the
diminished expectations of last week. We think that the package should be
seen as progress in the resolution of the Euro crisis, even if the final outcome
crucially depends on the capacity to attract potential non-European investors
and a full finalization of deal with the private sector on Greek debt with an
acceptable level of participation. Note that attaining a public debt of 120% of
GDP by 2020 – the explicit target for the PSI according to the European
policy makers – by our calculation is conditional on a 100% participation rate.
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