这是作者的数据型态
由于比较9组数据,所以才建立rates_i
你应该不用建立rates_i
V7 V8 V9 V10 V11 V12 V13 V14 V15 V16 V17 V18
1 0.798 1.209 1.445 1.537 1.575 1.590 1.596 1.596 1.593 1.589 1.584 1.580
2 0.779 1.210 1.455 1.546 1.579 1.589 1.589 1.584 1.577 1.568 1.560 1.552
3 1.239 1.439 1.555 1.609 1.641 1.665 1.683 1.699 1.714 1.727 1.739 1.751
.....
482 5.220 5.677 5.997 6.178 6.225 6.206 6.186 6.188 6.208 6.244 6.294 6.358
V19 V20 V21 V22 V23 V24 V25 V26 V27 V28 V29 V30
1 1.575 1.571 1.568 1.565 1.563 1.562 1.562 1.567 1.575 1.599 1.630 1.699
2 1.545 1.538 1.534 1.530 1.528 1.528 1.528 1.536 1.548 1.582 1.623 1.714
3 1.762 1.773 1.783 1.793 1.803 1.813 1.822 1.849 1.874 1.919 1.960 2.026
.....
482 6.431 6.508 6.583 6.653 6.714 6.765 6.806 6.892 6.954 7.066 7.189 7.430
V31 V32 V33 V34 V35 V36 V37 V38 V39 V40 V41 V42
1 1.774 1.852 1.933 2.015 2.098 2.183 2.264 2.336 2.393 2.430 2.442 2.426
2 1.808 1.902 1.993 2.082 2.166 2.246 2.318 2.379 2.424 2.452 2.458 2.441
3 2.083 2.134 2.181 2.225 2.267 2.308 2.346 2.383 2.418 2.450 2.481 2.508
.....
482 7.623 7.765 7.863 7.936 8.001 8.069 8.142 8.216 8.287 8.352 8.407 8.450
V43 V44 V45 V46 V47 V48 V49 V50 V51
1 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888
2 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888
3 2.532 2.553 2.569 2.580 2.586 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888
.....
482 8.479 8.495 8.498 8.486 8.460 8.420 8.366 8.301 8.224
V52 V53 V54 V55 V56 V57 V58 V59 V60
1 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888
2 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888
3 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888
.....
482 8.140 8.049 7.956 7.863 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888 -88.888
V61 V62
1 -88.888 -88.888
2 -88.888 -88.888
3 -88.888 -88.888
.....
482 -88.888 -88.888
######rates_i
[,1] [,2]
[1,] 1 2
[2,] 1 3
[3,] 1 6
[4,] 3 6
[5,] 3 12
[6,] 3 120
[7,] 12 24
[8,] 12 120
[9,] 24 120
########## procedure
Number of Bootstrap Replications 50
Number of Gridpoints for threshold 50
Cointegrating Vector fixed at 1
[1] "short_i"
[1] 2
[1] "long_i"
[1] 3
[1] "long_i"
V9 V8
1 1.445 1.209
2 1.455 1.210
3 1.555 1.439
**********************************************************
Long Rate (month): 2
Short Rate (month): 1
Number of VAR lags: 1
Linear VECM Estimates
Cointegrating Vector 1
Negative Log-Like -1049.493
AIC -1033.493
BIC -1028.043
Equation 1
0.081899 0.23554
-0.007664 0.04248
0.389354 0.27974
-0.288518 0.23198
Equation 2
0.662612 0.24171
-0.122494 0.04331
0.578937 0.27125
-0.437543 0.23857
Threshold VECM Estimates
Threshold Estimate 0.032
Cointegrating Vector Estimate 1
Negative Log-Like -1089.685
AIC -1057.685
BIC -1046.785
First Regime
Percentage of Obs 0.11875
Equation 1
0.37513 1.4089
-0.12081 0.1003
-0.45586 0.5128
-0.02404 0.4642
Equation 2
2.59156 1.6239
-0.24869 0.1091
-0.31520 0.5308
0.02136 0.4931
Second Regime
Percentage of Obs 0.88125
Equation 1
0.029670 0.23206
0.002812 0.04294
0.530674 0.27155
-0.275981 0.23837
Equation 2
0.577925 0.24437
-0.097514 0.04442
0.668365 0.27426
-0.412041 0.25164
Wald Test for Equality of Dynamic Coefs 31.72677 2.175522e-06
Wald Test for Equality of ECM Coef 9.400499 0.00909301
[1] "short_i"
[1] 2
[1] "long_i"
[1] 4
[1] "long_i"
V10 V8
1 1.537 1.209
2 1.546 1.210
3 1.609 1.439
**********************************************************
Long Rate (month): 3
Short Rate (month): 1
Number of VAR lags: 1
Linear VECM Estimates
Cointegrating Vector 1
Negative Log-Like -904.2217
AIC -888.2217
BIC -882.7718
Equation 1
-0.02517 0.14805
0.01674 0.04786
0.19173 0.18921
-0.08442 0.14309
Equation 2
0.47959 0.15831
-0.14789 0.04939
0.45294 0.19111
-0.27795 0.15604
Threshold VECM Estimates
Threshold Estimate 0.274
Cointegrating Vector Estimate 1
Negative Log-Like -936.4757
AIC -904.4757
BIC -893.5759
First Regime
Percentage of Obs 0.5208333
Equation 1
-0.3084 0.46640
0.1015 0.08105
0.3077 0.34505
-0.5977 0.24998
Equation 2
0.5914 0.47204
-0.1130 0.08155
0.5378 0.32542
-0.6664 0.24371
Second Regime
Percentage of Obs 0.4791667
Equation 1
0.07982 0.18649
-0.03220 0.08463
0.14056 0.19340
0.16402 0.16219
Equation 2
0.60136 0.20782
-0.21944 0.09218
0.38507 0.21583
-0.05859 0.19230
Wald Test for Equality of Dynamic Coefs 23.36054 0.0001072635
Wald Test for Equality of ECM Coef 3.098015 0.2124588
[1] "short_i"
[1] 2
[1] "long_i"
[1] 7
[1] "long_i"
V13 V8
1 1.596 1.209
2 1.589 1.210
3 1.683 1.439
**********************************************************
Long Rate (month): 6
Short Rate (month): 1
Number of VAR lags: 1
Linear VECM Estimates
Cointegrating Vector 1
Negative Log-Like -795.4003
AIC -779.4003
BIC -773.9504
Equation 1
-0.13294 0.08350
0.08305 0.04445
0.19526 0.14076
-0.04162 0.10434
Equation 2
0.20725 0.10128
-0.10957 0.04974
0.46079 0.14960
-0.26193 0.11403
Threshold VECM Estimates
Threshold Estimate 0.473
Cointegrating Vector Estimate 1
Negative Log-Like -806.7996
AIC -774.7996
BIC -763.8998
First Regime
Percentage of Obs 0.49375
Equation 1
-0.4148 0.20286
0.1357 0.06638
0.2095 0.20968
-0.2070 0.11459
Equation 2
0.2620 0.21262
-0.1157 0.06641
0.3242 0.16680
-0.3578 0.11344
Second Regime
Percentage of Obs 0.50625
Equation 1
-0.18094 0.1182
0.16329 0.1003
0.15140 0.1692
0.04167 0.1421
Equation 2
0.25213 0.1651
-0.14865 0.1328
0.43653 0.1892
-0.17888 0.1577
Wald Test for Equality of Dynamic Coefs 5.809176 0.2138595
Wald Test for Equality of ECM Coef 2.820796 0.2440462
[1] "short_i"
[1] 4
[1] "long_i"
[1] 7
[1] "long_i"
V13 V10
1 1.596 1.537
2 1.589 1.546
3 1.683 1.609
**********************************************************
Long Rate (month): 6
Short Rate (month): 3
Number of VAR lags: 1
Linear VECM Estimates
Cointegrating Vector 1
Negative Log-Like -1170.032
AIC -1154.032
BIC -1148.582
Equation 1
-0.30727 0.17024
0.08190 0.04084
0.25739 0.22642
-0.11409 0.19439
Equation 2
-0.05042 0.19133
0.02050 0.04294
0.36426 0.23633
-0.23648 0.21885
Threshold VECM Estimates
Threshold Estimate 0.403
Cointegrating Vector Estimate 1
Negative Log-Like -1190.58
AIC -1158.58
BIC -1147.681
First Regime
Percentage of Obs 0.825
Equation 1
0.15182 0.22731
0.02732 0.04995
0.44419 0.23197
-0.21550 0.21538
Equation 2
0.28331 0.23367
-0.01553 0.05057
0.50553 0.22033
-0.25491 0.20429
Second Regime
Percentage of Obs 0.175
Equation 1
-0.58737 0.3815
0.17697 0.2284
0.01184 0.4424
-0.02465 0.3454
Equation 2
-0.18176 0.4833
0.02249 0.2687
0.17419 0.4876
-0.23662 0.4317
Wald Test for Equality of Dynamic Coefs 3.162593 0.530994
Wald Test for Equality of ECM Coef 4.968195 0.08340078