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HSBC Global Research: China's Contradiction - How excessive liquidity co-exists with a credit crunch
Date: 3 November 2011
Language: English
Format: PDF
Pages: 87
Table of Contents
China’s credit myth 4
Rising dependence on credit 5
Excess liquidity and rising rates 9
Funding outside RMB loans 13
Rate liberalisation: already started… 17
Record-high credit spread 18
Spreads at record-high 18
Corporate bonds and off-balance sheet lending 22
Targeted policies and
continued stress 25
Targeted policy fine-tuning 26
No seasonal easing 28
Shadow banking risk 32
Executive summary 33
Size and growth of individual banks’ off-balance sheet credit 38
Bank acceptances 39
Wealth management products 41
Development of bank wealth management products 43
Entrusted loans 44
Letters of credit (L/Cs) 46
Informal lending 47
Credit quality: revelations from
the bond market 50
Bond market revelations 50
Risks revealed by bond data 52
Revisiting local government financing vehicles 56
Property & credit stress 61
Credit conditions still tight 62
Sign of declining cash collection 63
Playing defence 64
Equity: credit-driven 66
Credit-driven growth 66
Informal financing 72
Informal lending 72
Offshore fund raising 77
Funding offshore 77
Disclosure appendix 82
Disclaimer 84
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