GLOBAL
Outlook 2007: Weathering the slowdown.................................................... 5
We expect the global slowdown to be contained. But much hinges on US housing.
One year on: a 2006 forecast post-mortem................................................. 6
Geopolitical risks: ten to watch in 2007................................................. 9
Forecast summary ........................................................................ 3
Economic themes for 2007 ................................................................ 4
The world at a glance................................................................... 74
．．．．．．．
EMERGING MARKETS
Outlook 2007: Regional divergence..................................................... 54
Emerging economies show much-improved indicators, but a sharper-than-expected global
slowdown could challenge the adjustment in some countries, particularly in Europe.
Assessing vulnerabilities: Damocles................................................... 55
Taylor rules update................................................................... 58
Turkey outlook ....................................................................... 59
Poland outlook ....................................................................... 60
Hungary outlook....................................................................... 61
Czech Republic outlook ............................................................... 62
South Africa outlook............................................................................... 63
ENERGY
Outlook 2007: 2007 may be another year of tight markets.................. ........ 64
A continued tight supply chain stands to dominate oil market fundamentals next year and
beyond. And we expect little demand relief from slower global growth.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Outlook 2007: The return of currency risk ............................................ 67
Tighter liquidity and lower growth should herald a more challenging year for carry trades.
EQUITY MARKET
Outlook 2007: Stocks still look attractive............................................ 70
This equity bull market may well be entering its last leg, but history shows that the final
stages of a bull run can be very profitable. On a relative basis, equities look attractive.
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