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      今天的文章虽长，但通俗易懂。来自中外多位经济学家与你共同探讨中国2012年的经济走势。你可以就其中一个问题谈谈自己的看法。Just enjoy it!  ChinaDaily surveyed economists about their expectations for China in 2012. Here arethe questions and their answers.

1. Will China face a hard landing next year?    China may face the risk of a hard landing if the  European Union's and the United States' economies decline more than expected  and the adjustment in the country's property market happens too fast. Such a  likelihood, however, is small. And consumption, which is now the driver of  China's economy, remains strong.    The World Bank has lowered its gross domestic product  (GDP) growth forecast for China to 9.1 percent for this year and 8.4 percent  for 2012, amid growing concerns about the effect of the European debt crisis  on the world's second-largest economy.    I would be more cautious about the monetary loosening,  because the consumer price index (CPI) has softened for two months and our  forecast of 9.1 percent growth is still above the government's GDP target  this year.    I would suggest the government stop the tightening  measures for a while to see what happens next.    The World Bank estimated that China's inflationary  pressure will ease further next year, predicting that CPI will grow 5.3  percent this year and 4.1 percent next.

----- Ardo Hansson, lead economist for China at the World Bank 2. Will inflation continue to calm down next year?       Along with cooling economic growth, China's inflation  is expected to decrease gradually next year. The consumer price index is  forecast to be as low  as 3 percent in  2012.    The main contributors to the soaring inflation in 2011  were cyclical factors, in that supplies couldn't satisfy market demands so  prices were raised. The situation has changed now and it is clear that  consumer prices are likely to further decline.    The easing of inflationary pressure will provide more  space for policymakers to loosen monetary policy because maintaining a GDP  growth rate of more than 8 percent is likely to be the top task of the  government in 2012.    ----- Peng Wensheng, chief economist with China  International Capital Corp Ltd

3. Will the property market collapse next year?    If the word "collapse" refers to the  bankruptcy of some property developers, I believe such a correction should be  allowed in regions that have seen too much price growth and speculation over  the past few years.    Such a collapse is necessary and healthy for the  long-term development of China's property sector and the overall economy. If  the government doesn't address the excessively high property  prices right now, it will become more problematic to the economy in the long  run.    Meanwhile, the government's tightened measures  regarding real estate should remain until prices fall to a reasonable level.  An annual growth rate of 7.5 to 8.5 percent is acceptable for such an active  adjustment. And the government should let the market play a bigger role in  this round of adjustment.    -----Wang Haifeng, director of the  International Cooperation Center affiliated with the National Development and  Reform Commission

4. Will China suffer a trade deficit in 2012?    I don't think there is any possibility that China will  see a trade deficit in 2012, or even for a few years.    Although the year-on-year growth for China's exports  has been on the decline during the past few months and the trend is expected  to continue, we should not be too pessimistic about the prospects for China's  exports.    Demand from  developed nations including the United States and European Union is still  there, although the growth is not robust. And China has been diversifying its  markets for exports, with shipments to countries including Brazil, Russia and  South Africa rising fast during the past year.    On the other hand, China's imports are not as strong as  expected as the nation's economy slows down. I expect double-digit exports growth for China will be  sustained in 2012 and the nation's surplus will narrow to around $120 billion  next year.    ----- Huo Jianguo, director of the Chinese Academy of  International Trade and Economic Cooperation affiliated to the Ministry of  Commerce 5. Will China's currency become more internationalized? The internationalization of the yuan can help China adjust the US dollar-based and passive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. It can also greatly enhance China's role in international trade and investment.Meanwhile, the lift to the yuan's global profile will help upgrade China's exports and make it easy for China to adopt balanced measures to reduce trade surpluses and increase imports. The anticipation of the yuan's appreciation will help boost China's purchasing power of energy and raw material products and strengthen national and corporate competitiveness.The internationalization of the yuan will also help boost domestic demand and help shift the growth model from being export-driven to consumption-driven. ----- Shen Jianguang, chief economist for China with Mizuho Securities

  

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6. Will the yuan appreciate further or  depreciate?       Although in recent months the trade  surplus of China has declined dramatically and capital outflows have  occurred, we predict in 2012 the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar  will continue to appreciate moderately.    The Chinese government may still  hesitate to revalue the yuan faster and more dramatically because it worries  that it may further shock the weak exports and pose a negative impact on  asset prices as well as financial industries.    However, to avoid a trade war and  facilitate economic restructuring, we think the authorities would prefer the  yuan to appreciate 3 to 5 percent year-on-year in 2012.    And the exchange rate of the yuan  against the dollar will rise to 6.25 by the end of this year, before it  increases to 6 by the end of 2012. After that, the currency rate between the  yuan and the dollar is likely to remain stable.    ----- Wang Tao, head of China  economic research at UBS Securities Co Ltd

7. Will the Chinese stock market continue  to see volatility?       The valuations of the A-share market  have fallen so low that the systemic risk in China's economy may have already  been factored into current market prices.    While inflationary pressure will  continue to ease, the policymakers are likely to further loosen credit  tightening. China could also benefit from lower commodities prices that were  pushed down by the poor prospects for the world's economy.    It seems that the most painful period  for investors has passed. If the reserve requirement ratio is lowered by the  central bank to 18 percent, it may help improve liquidity and trigger a bull  run in the market that could last for several years.    -----Frank Gong, vice  chairman of China Investment Banking at JP Morgan Chase & Co

8. Will China be hit by a backlash in its  energy saving and emission reducing efforts?       China is in a new arms race. We have  already seen areas of the country affected by brown-outs as the  infrastructure developments struggle to keep pace with increased demand.    Only vision-led and coherent energy  policies that address the "energy trilemma" will gain public  acceptance and investors' trust in delivering a sustainable energy future.  This is particularly true in the case of energy efficiency, which is not the  "low-hanging fruit" that many commentators have suggested.    China has made significant headway in  delivering energy-efficiency programs. The 1,000 Enterprise Program is aimed  at reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20 percent over five years.  Our findings suggest that this program has contributed to a considerable  reduction in energy consumption and carbon emissions in the target enterprises.    As China continues its inexorable  growth, becoming the world's No 1 energy consumer, the challenge is to build  on these successes and balance the need for energy security and social  equity. However, environmental-impact mitigation remains the country's greatest  challenge, especially in the context of increased urbanization, with up to 50  megacities projected by 2050.    Potential stresses in the energy-water  nexus will need to be carefully monitored. Car ownership is also growing at a  rate of 12 percent a year and our transport scenarios will show that clear  policies are essential to limit the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.    ----- Christoph Frei, secretary  general of the World Energy Council

9. Will China see a sharp decrease in  foreign direct investment?       China will remain a magnet for foreign  direct investment in 2012. While all major international companies are  already here, most are planning to increase their investments in the country.  Moreover, we are now seeing many small and medium-sized companies coming to  China for the first time.    For many companies, China's  intellectual property rights (IPR) is their biggest concern. However, if  these companies truly have a product that is needed in China and they don't  manufacture it here it because of the IPR issue, some company in China will  eventually figure out how to make it and they will have new competitors  anyway.    My advice is to manufacture the  product in China so that these companies can meet the competition head-on and  be most competitive.    One reason that some international  companies feel business is getting more difficult in China is because local  companies are becoming stronger and gaining market share month to month.    While many companies may not be as  enthusiastic about manufacturing products in China and shipping them back to  the United States or Europe because costs in China are going up and the yuan  is appreciating   against the dollar, they will still want to  produce in China in order to gain access to the market.    -----Jack Perkowski,  founder of JFP Holding

10. Will China's local government debt  see default on a large scale in 2012?       The massive influx of liquidity since  the crisis has helped corporations meet obligations on previous debt.  However, a loose credit policy can't remain in place forever, particularly in  an environment of high inflation.    Credit risk has risen from an  overextension of loans to local governments and property firms, both of which  have questionable medium-term repayment capacity. Off-balance-sheet activity  has also grown, adding fire to the credit boom and providing banks with new  channels to window-dress financials.    If local governments were to encounter  repayment issues, this could extend beyond their obligations to banks to  their obligations to contractors and subcontractors of projects etc. In this  regard, the entire transport and infrastructure portfolio could be affected.    ----- Charlene Chu, head of China  Financial Institutions, Fitch Ratings    What are your answers to them?Please leave your comments .

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According to various prospects  published by many organizations recently,  we can summarize several commom views about the economic situation in 2012: (1) economic growth will slowdown; (2)inflationary  pressure will ease further; (3) external demand will decline; (4) house prices will be falling on the whole.

So much uncertainty! It is nice to see views from experts, and we will see what will come next in 2012!

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I don't think foreigners are willing to invest in China as earnest as before. If it is the case, it is just based on the openning-up of China to foreign countries which leads to more mutual understanding and culture communication.
However, foreingn companies have set foot in many industries in China and the room for their development is relatively small now. Former preferential tax clauses, such as the reinvestment tax reimbursement and the 15% preferential income tax rate have been canceled. Once they enjoyed total deduction of wages before income tax compared to partial deduction in interior-capital-enterprises, but now, the favor has gone. They have to compete with local enterprises for labors, and the labor cost keeps rising.
From the perspective of market, the export market is shrinking because of the appreciation of RMB. But if swiched to domestic market, they face more competition than ever since many local companies also strive to occupy more shares and foreign companies have no advantages in doing so.
Foreign companies have to pay insurances for their foreign employees, which will further increase their labor cost. And they occasionally meet with penalties and law suit failures. For example, Uniliver was fined for the round of increasing price, Walmart was punished for taken ordinary pork as organic ones and Apple just lost the law suit for the use of ipad trademark in mainland China. They won't meet more friendly environment than in their home country.
For the above reasons, I am a little pessimistic on foreign investment.