2012 Outlook: U.S. Equity REITs Economy Remains the Wildcard

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2012 Outlook: U.S. Equity REITs Economy Remains the Wildcard

Rating Outlook
Fitch Ratings is maintaining its Stable Rating Outlook for the U.S. equity REIT sector for 2012,
given Fitch’s expectations of continued solid liquidity and relatively unchanged leverage and
coverage metrics.
Good Access to Capital: Fitch expects issuers will continue to have access to low all-in cost
secured and unsecured debt and will opportunistically access the equity markets to fund
acquisitions and development.
Slowly Stabilizing Fundamentals: Fitch expects continued flat or negative property-level
fundamentals across several asset classes. Fundamentals in the multifamily sector should
continue to have a positive trajectory in 2012, and central business district (CBD) office cash
flows are stabilizing, although NOI declines may still occur. Most retail REITs should have
relatively unchanged same-store NOI growth. The suburban office and industrial sectors will
continue to face challenges to maintain same-store NOI.
Fragile Improvement in the Economy: Fitch expects only modest growth in GDP in 2012.
Corporations will likely remain defensive in the near term, building cash balances and delaying
major expenditures. Tepid growth, combined with a defensive posture on behalf of businesses,
should keep space demands for commercial real estate at modest levels. A lack of any nearterm
employment growth catalysts will continue to weigh on a broader economic recovery.
Continued Elevated Leverage: Fitch does not expect U.S. REITs will meaningfully delever
during 2012. Nearly all follow-on common equity offerings will likely be for development or
paired with an acquisition or other opportunity.
Flat Acquisition Volume: Improved liquidity has enabled many companies to have the
flexibility to pursue acquisitions without affecting rating levels, although Fitch would view most
acquisitions more negatively if they were not financed on a leverage-neutral basis. Fitch
expects that REIT acquisition volume will increase in 2012, given that asset prices are still well
below peak valuation, combined with significant secured debt maturities over the next few
years.
What Could Change the Outlook
Fitch would consider revising the sector outlook to positive if sector-wide leverage levels
decreased, fixed-charge coverage levels increased, capital markets access and liquidity levels
remained strong, same-store NOI turned positive for several consecutive quarters across most
property types, the macroeconomic backdrop resulted in sustained job growth (driving demand
for space), and asset transaction volume improved.
Alternatively, the outlook could be revised to negative if access to long-term unsecured debt
capital reverted to the weak levels observed in late 2008 and early 2009, issuers embraced
riskier strategies such as speculative development, higher leverage levels, and lower coverage
levels, property-level fundamentals  measured by same-store NOI  weakened, issuers
increased leverage levels, and issuers increased common stock dividends to a level that
significantly reduced retained cash flows.

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惠誉国际评级

撰写时间：

2011-12-08

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关键词：Outlook remains Economy outloo econom 惠誉国际

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