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􀂄 More upside surprises ahead?
Weekly unemployment insurance claims have fallen more than expected, while
housing and confidence statistics have been better than anticipated. In this setting,
we have raised our expected real GDP growth rate for Q4 from 2.5% to 3.0%. The
stronger final quarter provides a statistical starting point greater than we had
expected for 2012 GDP versus its 2011 calendar average. Therefore, we have
raised our calendar average real GDP forecast from 2.0% to 2.1%. Despite
continued weakness overseas, two key sources of domestic resiliency should be a
healing residential real estate market and further lagged bank lending benefits from
earlier Fed quantitative easing (QE).
􀂄 2011 US Economic Perspectives bibliography
This issue contains a bibliography of UBS US Economics Perspectives essays
published during 2011. We hope you find it a useful reference guide to our
research published over the past year.
Thank you for your interest in our research in 2011. Our forecasting efforts were
recognized in the January 2012 edition of Bloomberg Markets. The department
was cited as having the most ac
curate week-ahead forecasts of US economic data
over the two-year period through the third quarter.
􀂄 The past week
In the past week’s reports, the broader measures of Q4 activity were
strengthening—with improvement in claims, confidence, and the leading economic
index. Housing also gave signs of a pick-up, although earlier sales volumes were
cut. However, capex has been soft in Q4 and Q3 GDP was revised downward.
􀂄 The week ahead
In a limited week of economic reports, the weekly store sales indexes and jobless
claims data will be a focus. Store sales indexes have rebounded after typical early-
December softness. New jobless claims have been falling in 2011. The latest fourweek
average of 380k compares with averages of 412k in Q3 and 417k in H111.
Housing-related data in the coming week will likely be mixed, with the November
pending home sales rising, but an expected decline in the SP/CS price index.
Contents page
More upside surprises ahead? 3
2011 Bibliography 7
The Past Week 26
UBS U.S. Economic Forecasts: What and Why? 28
U.S. GDP, Interest Rate, and Inflation Forecasts 29
The Week Ahead 30
U.S. Economic Data and Events Calendar 41
2011-12-23_瑞银证券_USEconomicPerspectives：2011EndingStronger.pdf
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