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雷达卡
看WSJ看多了有点idea, 就花了半个小时写了一下，没校对，疏漏难免，希望大家多多指教，增加这里的讨论气氛 
我打算几年后自己再来看自己的观点怎么样。
Greece’s10Y gov bond’s yield is sky-high at 35%, Portugal 13%, Italy 7%, with this kindof burden, thing’s not gonna “back-to-normal” again soon or completely. It’sgonna be brought to the table every time these countries need money fromcapital market, to pay their interest, principal, or else. It’s gonna be like acancer, if you don’t kill the new cancer cells (the interest) quick enough,they will become old cells to produce new cancer cells. Even if you can killthe newly-grown cancer cells fast enough, you still have work to do: remove theold cancer cells (debt principal) ASAP! So,with this logic, I try to draw a sketch of the whole pictures which this dramais possible to developed into :
1. ECB takes action, buys thebonds, say, in a panic and dangerous situation, which gives it reason or excuseto take “extraordinary” action to print money and inflate the whole area out ofthis hole. The ones who suffer will be mass, they will see their wealth shrinkwhile prices of daily necessities rise. They don’t have much money to “invest”to surpass the inflation, and the money they need to feed themselves, theirfamily, and to provide basic support for their daily life, are eaten by theinflation gradually.
2. IMF comes in and offers togive a hand, but it surely has some conditions for them to meet. Maybe it’sjust a lending of new money with longer term payment period. Maybe these countriesneed to give up something or go through a series of “changes” on theirstructures.
3. Even if the yields comedown to an extent that may give them a break, after others’ help, or with globaleconomic picture turning brighter some time later, they still need to work harder,tax more, retire later and spend less on welfare, public infrastructure, and soon, for an extended period of time. Theywere just like drug users who are not likely to become a self-controlled normalperson overnight. This whole thing can go as long as more than a decade.Meanwhile they have to dig themselves out of the hole and beg the capitalmarket to look them positively and optimistically so that they can raise moneyfrom time to time when the bonds mature.
4. Extreme things are notimpossible to happen, people in these countries might not be able to face thechanges the “government” brought to them, and decide to overturn the table,close the door and not to deal with the capital market again, they don’t caretheir countries’ reputation broken in capital market, they want their lifeback, so ugly situation may happen and these countries might end up into chaos,surely, the creditors will suffer too, the banks, which hold lots of the craps –Euro debts, may spread the crisis to other countries since their international branchesare everywhere. If that happens, a big, I mean huge reshuffle of global picturewill start to play. It’s gonna be a big time for China to stand out.
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