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Downside risk in the macro,
upside potential in the miners
Prefer Gold, Copper, Iron Ore. MS Commodities
team has revised its forecasts; most moves are
down, on ongoing macro events. As such, EPS
revisions for the miners are mostly negative. Yet the
industry is attractive, at ~0.7x NPV. The industry is
underheld and capable of rallying, in our view.
Supportive signs emerging: The prospects of a
European recession and a Chinese “hard landing”
remain. There have also been some positive leading
indicators for growth from the US and parts of Asia.
A rally in the miners is possible: The sector is widely
underweight currently, and four of the last five times an
underweight position of this nature occurred, the sector
subsequently rallied +30%. This would only bring it back
to fair value; we see the potential for this to occur again.
Equities lead the commodities: As was the case
through the GFC, equity price weakness leads the
commodity price decline by six months. Similar to 2009,
the equities could be approaching an inflection point and
experience a period of miscorrelation from commodities.
Industry overview: Commodity price forecasts are
(mostly) down over the coming years. On average our
2012 EPS forecasts are down ~16% (see Exhibit 6).
There are also upward revisions to many long-term
forecasts. As a result 11 of 18 PT’s increased, three
were unchanged and four lowered.
Key Overweight Preferences: Gold – we shift our
preference to mid-cap names, particularly MML, where
we expect a return to stable production in 1Q 2012.
Copper has favourable fundamentals, and PNA (which
also has gold credits) offers near-term catalysts with a
new mine and an expansion in 1H 2012. Iron ore – We
retain OW on RIO and BHP; RIO with its iron-oredominated
revenue and capacity for capital returns or
corporate activity appeals. Mineral Sands prices are at
levels unthought of 12mths ago, and while there is
concern about the impact of zircon demand softness,
margins remain robust. ILU has flat production, so is
price influenced, but offers attractive metrics.
2012-01-17_摩根士丹利亚洲_AustMetals.pdf
(621.86 KB)
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