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2012 Annual Review of
Long-Term Metal and Bulk
Commodity Prices
Introduction: At the beginning of each year, we
undertake a review of our short and long-term (LT) price
forecasts for metals and bulk commodities that comprise
our current coverage universe. Currently, this universe
comprises the six major base metals (aluminium, copper,
lead, nickel, tin and zinc), the precious metals (gold,
silver and the platinum group metals), the steel making
raw materials (iron ore, metallurgical coal, and
manganese), mined energy commodities (thermal coal
and uranium) and mineral sands (zircon, rutile, synthetic
rutile and ilmenite).
Conclusion: LT nickel, gold, coking and thermal
coal prices increased materially, LT bauxite and
alumina prices are reduced (Exhibit 1).
Base metals: All long-term price forecasts have risen in
this review, largely reflecting the impact of capital and
operating cost inflation and the inclusion of additional
data on secondary lead and nickel pig iron production.
Precious metals: Long-term gold and silver price
forecasts have risen by 17%. For the PGM basket,
long-term price forecasts for platinum and palladium
have both increased by a nominal 1%.
Bulk commodities: A different cost data set has had a
material impact on our long-term bauxite and alumina
prices, which are reduced by 10% and 38%, respectively.
By contrast, our long-term premium hard coking and
thermal coal long-term prices are increased by 21% and
16%, respectively, to reflect cost and capital inflation
pressures. Australian iron ore fines prices (CFR basis)
have been raised by 5%. Mineral sands prices are
included in this review for the first time.
2012-01-17_摩根士丹利亚洲_MetalSparks：2012AnnualReviewofLong-TermMetalandBulkCo.pdf
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