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Inflation and macro policy drive valuations. In our view, EM growth in
1H12 is likely to be below forecast. This is negative but current
valuations discount slow growth. Investors should focus on a larger
policy response to support growth. We recommend adding EM equity
risk today. Our end 2012 MSCI EM target is 1150.
As policy shifts, our conviction in sector calls increases. Stay long
cyclicals (tech, industrial and consumer cyclicals) and underweight
defensives (staples, utilities and telcos). Please see page 5 for our
detailed heat map with key sector over and underweights. We are
launching our EM Strategy Top 10. The stocks are: Tencent Holdings,
ICICI Bank Ltd, Quanta Computer, Samsung Electronics, Siam
Commercial Bank, Bm&FBovespa, PDG Realty, BR Malls, Sberbank
and Lukoil.
Our revised key trades are:
o EM to outperform DM
o OW cyclicals, UW defensives
o Buy interest-rate sensitives
o Manufacturing margin expansion as CPI > PPI
o Avoid China's first credit and property cycle; UW property,
building materials and construction companies plus global
resources.
o China's demographic destiny: OW ASEAN, automation,
consumption
Technical analysis is yet to support a bullish view on EM with MXEF
likely to trade within range before potentially creating a major bottom in
2012. A break above 1045-1095 range is needed to get bullish (page 6).
The key risks to our view are that EM inflation, particularly core
inflation, remains stubborn, and DM economic growth is worse than our
base case of a mild EU recession and sub par US growth. The euro crisis
and political calendar in EM are likely to drive volatility in 2012. For
more on risks, please see page 10.
For our ‘Key Trade’ stock ideas, click here to download the Bloomberg
sheet.
Table of Contents
Remember us? EM Equities, the high return asset class .....3
Charting the Course: Technical Strategy ...............................6
Foreign Exchange Technical Strategy....................................8
Risks to our Strategy .............................................................10
Global emerging markets model portfolio by country ........14
Global emerging markets model portfolio by sector...........15
Key Trades ..............................................................................16
China: Volatility until policy changes ...................................28
Brazil: The World’s Largest Growth Rebound .....................30
South Korea: Sideway market...............................................32
Taiwan: returns to OW in Technology ..................................34
India: Turing the corner .........................................................36
Russia: resumption of the rally amidst volatility.................38
South Africa: Defensive equity but risky FX ........................40
Mexico: Less negative than before.......................................42
Malaysia: General Elections is an event risk .......................44
Indonesia: Catalysts falling in Place.....................................46
Thailand: Position for a growth rebound .............................48
Poland: Core or periphery? ...................................................50
Turkey: slowing economy is Turkish delight .......................52
Philippines: Positive start well supported ...........................54
Egypt: Still waiting on what comes next ..............................56
Extended markers ..................................................................59
Consensus Asset Allocation .................................................61
Hindsight trades: What has worked......................................62
Composite valuation indicators ............................................64
EMBIG100................................................................................68
Emerging Markets Strategy Dashboards .............................75
2012-01-19_J.P摩根证券亚洲_KeyTradesandRisks：EmergingMarketsEquityStrategy.pdf
(5.92 MB)
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