发帖
雷达卡
LatAm Strategy
La Niña Risk Mounting, Relevant Regional Impact
Latin America Equity Strategy
Ben LaidlerAC
(1-212) 622-5252
ben.m.laidler@jpmchase.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Brian P Chase
56 2 425 5245
brian.p.chase@jpmorgan.com
Inversiones y Asesorias Chase Manhattan
Ltda
Emy Shayo
(55-11) 3048-6684
emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com
Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.
See page 14 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
Chile Hydro Load Factors
%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Jun-
99
Dec-
99
Jun-
00
Dec-
00
Jun-
01
Historical Average
Source: CDEC-SIC.
Argentina Wheat Production
Millions of Tons
10
12
14
16
96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02
Source: USDA.
Forecasters are now calling for La Niña conditions to intensify
through at least early 2009, representing the second wave of an
episode that began in September 2007.
• Broad negative for the LatAm region, as it typically results in severe
weather conditions – droughts across much of central/southern South
America (Chile, Argentina, Peru, Southern Brazil) and flooding in the
more northern sections (Colombia, Northern Brazil).
• Obvious effect on the agro/electricity sectors, but secondary effects
across other industries, including banking, beverages and mining, could
ultimately have a more considerable impact on regional economies.
• We see the greatest potential impact on Chile, Argentina and Peru,
as lofty exposure of the important agro/electricity sectors could place
added strain on already weakening economies. The last major La Niña
(1998/99) brought droughts, causing grain production to fall 15-30% and
hydro load factors to drop by more than 50%, exacerbating the effects of
the Asian crisis and throwing real GDP growth into negative territory.
• We also see some risk in Colombia, where La Niña can lead to severe
flooding, impacting agriculture (in the last major episode, coffee
production fell 15-25%) and some industrial processes (such as
mining/energy), ultimately impacting economic growth.
• Brazil and Mexico should be less impacted. In Brazil, the primary risk
is in the agro sector with potentially drier conditions in the southern
regions. Mining and commerce could also be impacted by wetter
conditions in the north. Meanwhile, Mexico could face isolated risks
related to potentially more intense hurricane activity.
• Potential negative impacts on the following companies in our
coverage universe: Southern Cone electric utilities Endesa Chile (N),
Enersis (OW) and Edenor (UW); agro-exposed banks Banco Macro
(UW) and Banco Patagonia (UW) in Argentina, as well as Banco do
Brasil (N). More limited but still relevant risk for regional miners Vale
(OW), Southern Copper (UW) and Buenaventura (OW).
• Potential positive impacts on the following companies in JPM’s
coverage universe: grain-related ADM (OW), Bunge (N) SQM (N), SLC
(N); bevcos Andina (OW), KOF (OW), AmBev (UW), CCU (N), Arca
(N); infrastructure plays IAM (OW) and Cementos Argos (N).
289650.pdf
(396.24 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
