Can the minimum wage create jobs?

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最低工资制能创造就业？ Can the minimum wage create jobs?
作者：英国《金融时报》专栏作家 蒂姆•哈福德

One million unemployed young people. It had been coming for a while, but when the news broke in November that the number of 16- to 24-year-olds looking for work had reached seven figures, the number retained its power to shock.	100万待业青年。去年11月传出消息，16岁至24岁的待业青年总数达到7位数，尽管就业方面坏消息频传，但这个数字仍然令人大吃一惊。
Almost 300,000 students seeking part-time work are included in the total, and although directly comparable data are not available, the situation was almost certainly worse in the 1980s. Nevertheless, given the evidence that graduating during a recession can affect one’s earnings for far longer than the recession itself, the case for doing something looks urgent. But what?	100万中包含了近30万名正在找兼职工作的学生，而且，尽管没有直接可比的数据，但几乎可以肯定上世纪80年代的情况更糟。然而有证据显示，在衰退期毕业对一个人收入的影响时长将远远超过衰退期本身时长，为此我们急需采取行动。可采取什么行动呢？
To some, such as the Institute for Economic Affairs, the answer is simple: abolish the minimum wage. This is unlikely. Minimum wages gradually fell into disuse after Winston Churchill introduced a minimum wage system in 1909. Yet after Labour introduced a national minimum wage in 1999, grumblers have kept a low profile. David Cameron said in 2005 that it had been a success, while in 2008 George Osborne said that “Modern Conservatives acknowledge the fairness of a minimum wage.”	有一派观点认为，答案很简单，废除最低工资制即可，经济事务研究所(Institute for Economic Affairs)就支持这个观点。这不大可能。温斯顿•邱吉尔(Winston Churchill)1909年创立最低工资制以后，这一制度逐渐没有用武之地。不过，工党(Labour)1999年出台国家最低工资法之后，抱怨的声音不大。2005年，英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)曾表示该法很成功，而在2008年，英国财政大臣乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)表示，“现代的保守党人承认最低工资法是公平的”。
But that is an odd comment, because the case against the minimum wage was always that the law itself was unfair. A minimum wage forbids workers to sell their labour below a certain price, and therefore would be expected to create unemployment for low-productivity workers. Employers use machines instead.	不过，这番表态有些奇怪，因为“最低工资法本身有失公允”一直是反对者攻击它的理由。最低工资法禁止劳动者以低于规定的价格出售劳动力，因此可想而知，它会导致低生产率工人失业。雇主则改用机器代替人力。
The theoretical argument is simple and compelling. But is it true? Back in 1994 a remarkable article was published by economists David Card and Alan Krueger. They performed a statistical analysis and concluded that not only did the minimum wage not cost jobs – it might even create them. Amazing.	这个观点在理论上简单易懂、很有说服力。但真的是这样吗？早在1994年，戴维•卡德(David Card)和艾伦•克鲁格(Alan Krueger)两位经济学家就发表过一篇不同寻常的文章。文章通过统计学分析得出结论：最低工资制不仅不会减少工作岗位，甚至还可能创造工作岗位。这个结论真叫人吃惊。
Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence, and while many economists casually dismissed Card and Krueger, commentators on the left also seized uncritically on the results. Both attitudes are a shame because the research paper is too interesting to ignore. Card and Krueger were pioneers in using what economists call a “natural experiment”: the rise of minimum wages in New Jersey, while in neighbouring Pennsylvania they did not move. They surveyed more than 400 fast-food restaurants in New Jersey and east Pennsylvania and found no great difference between employment trends. Nor did higher-wage establishments display different employment trends to those who had to raise wages relative to the minimum. These methods broke new ground and have been much emulated.	不同寻常的结论需要不同寻常的证据支撑。许多经济学家对卡德和克鲁格的结论不以为然，许多左派评论人士却不加批判地利用这一研究结果。这两种态度都令人遗憾，因为这篇论文十分有趣，绝对不容忽视。卡德和克鲁格是运用经济学中称为“自然实验”的研究方法的先锋。新泽西州提高最低工资标准，而临近的宾西法尼亚州则维持不变。他们在新泽西州和宾西法尼亚州东部调查了400多家快餐店，发现两个地方快餐店的用工趋势并未出现很大不同。工资较高的店铺的用工趋势，与必须根据最低工资标准加薪的店铺的用工趋势也没有出现差异。这种研究方法具有开创性，受到了很多效仿。
It’s fair to say that not every statistical study has come to the same conclusion. But why might Card and Krueger be right in some cases? If employers have market power in the labour market then they might actually offer a lower wage than the balance of competitive supply and demand would produce. Some workers would rather keep looking or sign up for welfare payments, and so employment is lower at this level. Introduce a minimum wage and both wages and employment increase, while profits fall.	公平地说，并非所有统计学研究都得出了同样的结论。但是为什么卡德和克鲁格在某些情况下是对的呢？如果雇主在劳动力市场中处于上风，它们实际给出的工资可能会低于竞争性供求平衡状态下的工资水平。一些工人宁可继续找工作或申领福利补助，因此就业在这个层次上就会有所减少。推行最低工资制，工资水平和就业水平都会提高，利润则会下降。
Of course this analysis is time and place specific. Since its introduction in the UK, the minimum wage has outpaced consumer price inflation by about 20 per cent. Even if a minimum wage can offer income for the poor without destroying jobs, it would be complacent to assume this will remain true regardless of economic conditions. The Low Pay Commission has been allowing the minimum wage for younger workers to lag behind. No wonder.	当然这种分析只适用于特定的时间和地点。在英国引入最低工资后，其增速一直比消费价格指数(CPI)高出20%左右。即使最低工资制能够在不减少工作岗位的情况下提高贫困人群的收入，但如果认为无论在什么经济条件下都会出现这种结果，就未免有些忘乎所以了。英国低薪委员会(Low Pay Commission)一直准许对较年轻劳动者设定相对较低的最低工资标准。这并不令人意外。
But if a young adult cannot produce enough of value to justify being paid a living wage, nothing we do to the minimum wage will help. He, the institutions which trained him and the society in which he lives, have far bigger problems.	然而如果一个年轻人不能创造足够的价值，证明自己有资格获得足以谋生的薪水，那么无论我们怎样调整最低工资都于事无补。他本人、他呆过的教育机构，以及他所处的社会，都面临着更大的问题。
Tim Harford’s latest book is ‘Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure’ (Little, Brown).	注：蒂姆•哈福德的新书《适者生存：为何失败是成功之母》(Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure)由利特尔-布朗出版社(Little, Brown)出版。
	译者/何黎

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