德银：中国石油行业交易深度报告 [推广有奖]

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hedy5530 发表于 2007-1-12 12:41:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群|倒序 |AI写论文

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出版单位：德银 出版日期：2007.01.11 报告的名称：德银：中国石油行业交易深度报告 文件的格式：pdf 页数：35页 语言：英文 介绍： China Petroleum Trade A race to the finish David Hurd, CFA Research Analyst (86) 10 6505 9843 <a href="mailto:david.hurd@db.com" target="_blank" >david.hurd@db.com</A> Apparent demand for oil heats up China's apparent demand for oil surged Y-o-Y November '06 (+16.8%) pushing up Ytd November cumulative growth to 7.4% from 6.5% previous month. Curiously enough, in its Dec. monthly publication, the IEA downgraded its expectations for China oil demand in 2006F to 5.6% from its previous 6.2% - go figure. With the recent drop in oil prices, it seems logical to us that the PRC government might be interested in topping up reserves. Looking into 2007 In its December ’06 monthly oil market report, the IEA set its 2007F estimate for China oil demand at 5.4%. Over the past 5-, 10- and 20-year periods, China’s apparent demand for oil to real GDP growth has averaged 0.9x, 0.79x and 0.68x. China’s elasticity of demand for oil to real GDP growth seems to be increasing, which makes plenty of sense given the industrialization of the country. For 2007F, DB China Economist, Jun Ma, estimates real GDP growth in China at 9.5% vs. 10.5% for 2006. We suspect that China’s apparent demand growth for oil in 2007F will be roughly +7.6% or 0.8x our anticipated 2007F GDP growth rate. The 2006 – ‘07F product market Gasoline demand Ytd Nov ’06 continued to be strong (+9.4%) with an elasticity of demand to GDP of 0.9x. Over the past 5-, 10- and 20-year periods, elasticity of gasoline demand to real GDP has averaged 0.79x, 0.58x and 0.68x, respectively. We suspect that continued growth in automobile sales will support gasoline growth in 2007F. Diesel demand Ytd Nov. seems to have moderated (+6.5%), with elasticity of demand to GDP of only 0.62x vs. 1.05x, 1.04x and 0.92x over the past 5, 10 and 20 years, respectively. We suspect that high diesel prices continue to dampen spending habits of China’s 700 mln farmers. Turning to fuel oil (FO), we have been surprised at the strength in apparent FO demand (+6.5%) Ytd Nov ’06. Elasticity of demand of FO to GDP Ytd Nov ’06 has been 0.62x vs. 0.41x, 0.28x and 0.28x over the past 5, 10 and 20 years, respectively. With the electricity / energy deficits of 2003 and 2004 behind us, we suspect elasticity of FO should revert to its long-term average of 0.28x GDP. Valuation/risk We value our Asian oil stocks from DCF models. Terminal growth rates and WACC’s are company specific and as a result differ from company to company. We use a China risk-free rate of 5% and an equity premium of 6%. The principal risks to our oil company ratings are i) higher- / lower-than-anticipated oil prices, and ii) unanticipated changes in PRC oil policy.