20120205 Follow Me 270 Beware the hubris of the Brics

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星升星陨达沃斯 Beware the hubris of the Brics
作者：卡内基国际和平研究院国际经济问题高级研究员 摩西•纳伊姆 为英国《金融时报》撰稿

The ancient Greeks thought that “those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.” For them, the surest way to destroy a person is to fill him or her with success, power, prosperity and fame. Excessive success induces inordinate self-confidence, which inevitably leads them to make disastrous mistakes and to failure. Hubris, they called it.	古希腊人认为“众神欲使人灭亡，必先使其疯狂”。在他们看来，要想毁灭一个人，最有把握的方式是让他（或她）获得成功、权力、富足和名望。过度的成功会导致自信心过度膨胀，继而不可避免地让他们铸成大错，一败涂地。希腊人称之为“傲慢自大”(Hubris)。
Many centuries later we got the Brics: poor countries whose economic and geopolitical success and influence – and hubris – is growing quickly. And its not just these countries. HSBC, reckons that if current trends continue, by 2050 the 100 largest economies in the world will include (in addition to the Brics and traditional leaders such as the US, Germany and Japan) countries such as the Philippines (the 16th largest), Peru, Bangladesh and Colombia. Of course, the critical assumption is “if current trends continue”.	两千多年后，金砖国家粉墨登场：这些原本贫穷的国家，所取得的经济和地缘政治方面的成就和影响力（以及骄傲自大的情绪）正迅速增强。不只是这些国家，据汇丰(HSBC)估计，如果当前的趋势持续下去，到2050年，全球前100个最大的经济体中，除了金砖国家和美国、德国和日本等传统强国外，还会包括菲律宾（第16大经济体）、秘鲁、孟加拉和哥伦比亚。当然，一个关键的前提是“如果当前的趋势持续下去”。
Here is where it is worth mentioning the meeting hosted by the World Economic Forum in Davos. After many years of attending these meetings, I have become a great believer in the existence – and the power – of hubris. I do not know if it is the gods or human nature, but success and failure are too frequently inextricably linked and the Davos meeting offers an extraordinary laboratory to observe the phenomenon.	在达沃斯召开的世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)会议上，这一点值得一提。在出席过许多年的此类会议后，我开始对骄傲自大情绪的存在、以及这种情绪的力量深信不疑。不知是众神使然还是人性使然，成功和失败经常会难分难解地联系在一起，而达沃斯会议为观察这种现象提供了一个绝佳的实验室。
I remember vividly one of the most exuberant parties in Davos, hosted in the mid-1990s by the Mexican government. The host and star celebrity was then-president Carlos Salinas de Gortari. Shortly thereafter, the country - and its president – fell on hard times. I also remember Kenneth Lay, explaining to an enthralled audience that his business model, which generated $100bn in revenues in 2000, was the future. Soon after, his company Enron crashed. Mr Lay, if he had not passed away, would surely be in jail, joining several of his former colleagues. I also witnessed president Carlos Menem of Argentina describing the wonders of his country pre-debacle, and heard the triumphant narrative of the tycoons investing unjustifiable sums in internet companies with scant revenues and no profits. The acclaimed merger of the giant “old” Time Warner with the ”new” AOL was a prime example of this. The results were catastrophic.	我清晰地记得20世纪90年代中期墨西哥ZF主办的一次会议，那是达沃斯最志得意满的盛会之一。会议的东道主和明星人物是时任墨西哥总统卡洛斯•萨利纳斯•德•戈塔里(Carlos Salinas de Gortari)，然而没过多久，墨西哥（及其总统）就深陷困境。我还记得肯尼思•莱(Kenneth Lay)面对仿佛着了魔的听众侃侃而谈，解释他那种在2000年获得了1000亿美元收益的商业模式代表着未来。之后不久，他的安然公司(Enron)就宣告破产。如果肯尼思•莱仍然在世，现在肯定会和若干位前同事一起在监狱服刑。我还目睹过阿根廷总统卡洛斯•梅内姆(Carlos Menem)在该国遭遇危机前，讲述阿根廷的种种奇迹；听过向收入微不足道、丝毫没有盈利的互联网企业莫名其妙地投入巨资的大亨们意气风发的讲话。“旧经济”巨擘时代华纳(Time Warner)与“新经济”企业美国在线(AOL)之间一度受到追捧的合并案，就是一个典型的例证。其结果是灾难性的。
Another shining star very visible in Davos was Jean-Marie Messier, who tried to convert Compagnie General des Eux, a water utility and garbage collection company, into a media conglomerate: VivendiUniversal. He entitled his autobiography J6M.com Messier. In French this reads as Jean Marie Messier, myself, master of the world. I saw him at the 2002 WEF meeting in New York offering an fancy multimedia presentation of his company. A few months later VivendiUniversal announced the largest losses in French corporate history and Mr Messier was fired. I have not seen him at Davos since.	另一位曾在达沃斯光彩夺目的明星，是让-马利•梅西耶(Jean-Marie Messier)。他曾试图将经营水务和垃圾回收的公用事业企业通用水务公司(Compagnie Générale des Eaux)转变成媒体巨头维旺迪环球(Vivendi Universal)。他把自传的名字定为《J6M.com》，用法语读起来像是“我让-马利•梅西耶是世界的主人”。在2002年世界经济论坛纽约峰会上，我看到他用华丽的多媒体演示介绍自己的公司。但几个月后，维旺迪环球宣布了法国企业史上最大规模的亏损，梅西耶被解雇。此后我再也没有在达沃斯见到过他。
I also attended the presentations of the finance ministers of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea right before the Asian economic crisis erased them from the lists of the most sought after speakers. Davos offers many more of these cases of rapid rises and dramatic falls.	我还曾在亚洲经济危机爆发前参加过泰国、印尼、马来西亚和韩国财政部长的说明会，但由于危机的缘故，他们很快就从最受追捧的演讲嘉宾名单上消失了。这种迅速崛起、又戏剧性衰落的案例，在达沃斯出现过太多太多。
This does not mean that all who go to Davos are success-crazed characters. From Nelson Mandela to Elie Wiesel, shy researchers working on the frontiers of knowledge about cancer, brain and genetics, or activists who risk their lives confronting despots and protecting the innocent, it is easy to find admirable people who are successful but far from arrogant. But it is also all too easy to trip over characters clearly possessed by hubris.	这并不意味着所有参加达沃斯会议的人都狂热地追逐成功。从纳尔逊•曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)到埃利•威斯(Elie Wiese)，还有在癌症、大脑和遗传学领域研究前沿知识的学者，冒着生命危险对抗独裁者、保护无辜者的活动人士，这些成功但不傲慢、值得钦佩的人很容易找到。然而明显骄傲自大的人物也同样比比皆是。
What does all this have to do with the Brics and other poor countries that have become fashionable? You can perhaps imagine. As I was recently talking in Davos with Turks, Brazilians, Indians, Indonesians, Russians and Chinese, the symptoms of the many fallen celebrities who no longer stalk the corridors of this Swiss mountain town seemed just below the surface. Are the gods plotting to put these new arrogant characters in their place? Could it be that a crash is in the future of these emerging countries? Could this be one of the most important warnings coming from this year’s meeting on the Alps?	这些跟金砖国家、以及其它受追捧的贫穷国家有什么必然联系吗？或许你能够想象得到。最近我在达沃斯与来自土耳其、巴西、印度、印尼、俄罗斯和中国的与会者交谈时，许多陨落的明星曾暴露过的自傲症状已难掩住。而这座瑞士山间小镇的走廊里，已经没有了那些陨落明星的身影。众神是否正在谋划，把这些新的傲慢角色打回原形？这些新兴国家的前景会不会就是崩溃？而本文是否会成为今年在阿尔卑斯山麓举行的会议上发出的最重要的警告？
The writer is a senior associate in international economics at the Carnegie Endowment	注：作者是卡内基国际和平研究院(Carnegie Endowment)国际经济问题高级研究员。
	译者/何黎

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关键词：follow Beware BRICs BRIC RICS 国际 经济 mistakes failure success

For technical workers, to be arrogant may bring about many obstacles, which distract their mind. But for market seekers, to be arrogant may help to get more opportunities. And the posture is often regarded as success and self-confidence. We can see examples of this kind in our daily life. Sometimes the arrogant attitude deters enemy and acts more like a lubricant, which gives them a ladder to climb quickly before others know what the reality is.

those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.

too astonding. anyone should be modest, even when he or she achieves great success.

Emerging countries really have to be careful!

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Not to become dizzy with success, nor be discouraged by failure. Facing with success calmly.