Content
Foreword vii
Acknowledgments ix
Overview xi
Abbreviations xxvii
Chapter 1 Prospects for the Global Economy 1
Summary of the medium-term outlook 1
Global growth surged to 3.9 percent in 2006 2
Regional outlooks 6
Financial markets 12
World trade 18
Commodity markets 20
Downside risks predominate 23
Notes 26
References 27
Chapter 2 The Coming Globalization 29
The evidence of globalization 30
The world in 2030—the big picture 36
The four channels of globalization 46
What will happen if growth is slower—or faster—in the next 25 years? 52
Challenges of the coming globalization 58
Notes 61
References 63
Chapter 3 Income Distribution, Inequality, and Those Left Behind 67
The global distribution of income 70
Within-country inequality and poverty reduction 80
Policy implications 89
Notes 94
References 97
Chapter 4 New Pressures in Labor Markets: Integrating Large Emerging
Economies and the Global Sourcing of Services 101
The impact of globalization: the story so far 102
New challenge I—absorbing large emerging economies into the
global market 109
New challenge II—global sourcing of services 120
Policies to confront the labor market challenges of globalization 125
Notes 133
References 136
Chapter 5 Managing the Environmental Risks to Growth 141
The immediate risk of epidemics 143
The medium-term risks to marine fisheries 146
The long-term risk of climate change 149
Conclusions and policy recommendations 160
Notes 163
References 164
Appendix: Regional Economic Prospects 167
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