发帖
雷达卡
英国《金融时报》 安德鲁•希尔
字号[url=]最大[/url][url=]较大[/url][url=]默认[/url][url=]较小[/url][url=]最小[/url]
背景
中文评论打印[url=mailto:@?subject=Recommend an Article to you&body=Dear Friend, %0a%0d%0a%0dI saw this article on FTChinese.com, I think you might be interested: %0a%0d%0a%0dhttp://www.ftchinese.com/story/001043110 %0a%0d%0a%0dBest Regards, %0a%0d]电邮[/url]收藏 腾讯微博新浪微博
| |
Harry Potter and Viagra have more in common than you may imagine. They came to market within a year of each other in the late-1990s; they enjoyed enormous success; and what was a boon for the companies that produced and sold them could turn into a bane as their popularity fades and rivals emerge. | 哈利•波特(Harry Potter)和万艾可(Viagra)之间的共同点，比你想象的要多。它们都在20世纪90年代末上市，时间相隔不到一年；它们都取得了巨大的成功；随着受追捧程度的下降和竞争对手的出现，对于制造和销售它们的公司而言，曾经的福音都可能变成祸患。 |
Publishers dream of discovering a new mega-seller; pharmaceuticals companies yearn for more blockbuster drugs. They should grasp these exciting opportunities if they arise but also remember to work out how to handle the medium and long-term consequences. | 出版商梦想着发掘出一本新的超级畅销书；制药公司则渴望新的爆炸式畅销药。如果有这种激动人心的机会出现，它们应该抓住，但同时也要记得找到处理中长期后果的办法。 |
Nigel Newton, founder and chief executive of Bloomsbury, which published J.K. Rowling’s seven-book series, says he was well aware from pre-Potter days that unexpected hits were “as likely to destabilise the company as to propel further success”. Even so, when the company issued a profit warning in 2006, providing, in the words of one analyst, a glimpse of “life after Harry Potter”, the shares tumbled. They have yet to revisit their previous peaks. | 布鲁姆伯里出版公司(Bloomsbury)创始人首席执行官奈杰尔•牛顿(Nigel Newton)表示，他从前哈利•波特时代就非常明白，突如其来的成功“既可能推动公司进一步成功，也可能破坏公司的稳定”。布鲁姆伯里出版了J•K •罗琳(J.K. Rowling)的7本系列小说。尽管如此，在布鲁姆伯里2006年发布盈利预警之后，公司股票仍然大跌，按照一位分析师的说法，这份报告使人们得以一窥“后哈利•波特时代的生活”。该公司股价至今仍未回到先前的巅峰水平。 |
Mark Smith, co-founder of Quercus, which bought the English-language rights to Stieg Larsson’s Millennium detective novels in 2007, says their popularity did not surprise him (they were already selling well in Sweden and across continental Europe). But he admits the group allowed “some complacency to seep into the business” when it assumed high sales would last for years. | Quercus出版公司2007年购买了史迪格•拉森(Stieg Larsson)的《千禧》(Millennium)系列悬疑小说的英语版权，Quercus联合创始人马克•史密斯(Mark Smith)表示，他对小说的火爆程度并不感到奇怪（这部小说在瑞典和整个欧洲大陆都很畅销）。但他承认，当公司认为高销量将持续数年时，“公司中出现了一些自满情绪”。 |
Similar complacency has blighted the pharmaceuticals sector, despite the intermittent and occasionally fluky nature of some of its successes. The underlying compound in Viagra was intended to treat high blood pressure and angina, until its startling side-effect became apparent. Pfizer, whose scientists synthesised the drug, may justify its discovery as a product of intense and well-managed research and development. But manufacturing such lightning strikes is as hard as convincing an author’s muse to keep regular hours. | 制药业也遭到了类似自满情绪的侵袭，尽管它的一些成功只是间断性的，并带有偶然的侥幸成分。万艾可所含的基础化合物本来是用来治疗高血压和心绞痛的，直到它出现明显的令人吃惊的副作用。辉瑞(Pfizer)的科学家合成了这种药物，辉瑞或许可以合理地认为，这种产品的发现，是密集而管理有序的研发的产物。但要想大规模“生产”这类爆炸性成功，就和说服作家的灵感准时降临一样困难。 |
Pfizer has just closed the British research centre where the compound was discovered and is moving away from what it now considers high-risk areas of research. AstraZeneca, a UK rival, last week announced plans to cut 7,300 jobs as its pipeline stutters and its big-selling drugs face up to the loss of patent protection. | 辉瑞刚刚关闭了发现这种化合物的英国研究中心，并且正在退出它现在认为蕴含高风险的研究领域。它的英国竞争对手阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)上周宣布，由于销售渠道受挫，同时畅销药面临失去专利保护，公司计划裁减7300个工作岗位。 |
Whereas publishers have long acknowledged the potential volatility of their flagship products, Big Pharma marketed itself as an exemplar of strategic nous and straight-line growth. Companies created large and costly sales forces for their lumbering super-drugs, in the expectation that they could extend their string of hits. Now they are having to wind down the infrastructure in the face of competition from generic rivals, stricter regulation and fiercer negotiation by cheese-paring purchasers. “The environment we work in is more challenging in terms of regulators, insurers, government than it ever has been,” one chief executive told me two years ago. It has only got worse. | 出版商早已认识到自己的旗舰产品具有很大的潜在波动性，大制药公司却把自己营造为战略智慧和直线增长的典范。制药公司为它们步履蹒跚的超级药物打造出庞大而成本高昂的销售大军，希望它们能够延长成功的时间。现在，面对同类药物的竞争、更加严格的监管和吝啬的购买者更为残酷的议价，它们不得不缩短战线。“从监管、保险公司和ZF方面看，我们经营的环境比以往任何时候都更具挑战性，”一位首席执行官两年前对我这样说。如今，情况只会更加严峻。 |
I think pharma companies flouted some basic rules that publishers of bestsellers – or any company that finds itself with a hit on its hands – must follow to survive. Rule one, according to Bloomsbury’s Mr Newton: “Don’t believe your own propaganda.” Rule two, from Quercus’s Mr Smith: “Don’t take your success for granted.” Instead, use it to attract the staff who will help you observe rule three: diversify your portfolio so when the fuss dies down, the series ends, or the patent protection expires, the rest of your business can thrive. | 我认为，制药公司忽视了一些畅销书出版商——以及任何有突然成功经历的公司——所必须遵循的基本生存法则。法则一，如布鲁姆伯里的牛顿所言：“不要相信你自己的宣传。”法则二，来自Quercus的史密斯：“不要认为你的成功是理所当然的。”相反，要用它来吸引那些可以帮助你遵守法则三的员工。法则三：分散投资，这样当喧嚣散去、好戏结束、或专利保护到期时，你剩下的业务还能蓬勃发展。 |
Publishers have some advantages over drug companies. For instance, no regulator can force them to pulp a potential bestseller by ruling that tales of schoolboy sorcery or Nordic neo-Nazism could have damaging side-effects for readers. But their competitive situation is hardly easier in a world of tight ebook pricing, disputed digital rights and failing booksellers. | 相对于制药公司而言，出版商拥有一些优势。例如，没有监管者能够裁定，关于中小学男生魔法或北欧新纳粹主义的故事可能对读者产生有害的副作用，从而强迫它们回收一本潜在的畅销书。但在电子书定价低廉、数字版权存在争议和书商破产的环境下，它们的竞争形势一点也不比制药公司轻松。 |
Jim Collins and Morten Hansen write in Great by Choice that all companies have good and bad luck, but the ones that succeed are wary about “overestimating their own skill and leaving themselves exposed when good luck runs dry”. | 吉姆•柯林斯(Jim Collins)和莫腾•汉森(Morten Hansen)在《选择卓越》(Great by Choice)中写道，所有公司都有好运和背运，但成功的公司对“高估自己的能力，在好运用光时将自己置于风险之下”保持着警惕。 |
|
|
| 译者/方舟 |
京公网安备 11010802022788号
