德银:亚洲冶炼行业毛利率研究 DB-asian refining margin
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FO spreads improve Asian Refining Margins
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We are underweight Asian refiners. Our 2007F estimates for Asia (Sing) complex and simple refining margins (Rfm) are US$ 6.15/b & 2.75/b vs. US$5.69 and US$0.48 in 2006. The Asian complex and simple Rfm fell (-18.7%) and (-85%) in 2006. Returns on Asian refiners were a mixed bag in 2006 with SK Corp (+28%), FPCC (+18.7%) and others, mostly soft: S-Oil (-3%), Thai Oil (-21%), SPC (-9.17%) and Petron (-6.8%). For 2007F, we prefer simple to complex refineries as we expect FO spreads to improve in 2007F vs. 2006 due to lower oil prices.


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