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Asia Pacific / Japan
What if … the Growth Scare Becomes Reality in 2012
The macro ‘What If’ scenario
Visibility on the economic outlook is low. We have asked our analysts to consider the sensitivity to earnings from a 1% lower G10 GDP growth, where our base case is 2.4%. For Asia ex Japan, our economist, Chetan Ahya, calculates this scenario would lead to 0.9-1.4% lower regional growth.
What’s the risk to earnings?
In aggregate, our analysts see roughly 9% risk to earnings – both for Asia ex Japan and Japan – in 2012 under our GDP growth scenario analysis. Six percent of stocks would likely see higher earnings, while just over 20% could see a more than 15% cut to forecasts.
What’s in the price?
Our GEMs strategist, Jonathan Garner, believes the market is discounting a 18-20% fall in AxJ earnings in 2012; in contrast, our bottom up analysts’ base case is for 18% growth. For Japan, our macro team, led by Robert Feldman, believe a 1% lower GDP coupled with a 0.5% drop of the global GDP deflator would suppress TOPIX returns by ~6.3%; the market is down 9.5% since 1 August.
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MS_Japan_What if … the Growth Scare Becomes Reality in 2012.pdf
(1.05 MB)
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