MS 摩根斯坦利：中国银行业

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<P><FONT face=黑体 size=6><STRONG>MS 摩根斯坦利：中国银行业　China Banks    </STRONG></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=黑体 size=6><STRONG>02.14    21页　英文　February 14, 2007</STRONG></FONT></P>
<P> </P>
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2007-2-24 20:59:00 上传

MS 摩根斯坦利：中国银行业
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<P><FONT size=4>      People’s Bank of China (PBOC) have increased deposit rates twice since 4Q04, i.e in October 2004 and August 2006. In both cases, PBOC increased term deposit rates but left the demand deposit rates unchanged (Exhibit 3). After the 4Q04 deposit rate hike, we observed an increase in the cost of deposits (Exhibit 7). In the current round, we estimate the cost of deposits will go higher but the magnitude of increase will be smaller.<BR>      We observed a shift from demand deposits to term deposits after rate hike in 4Q04, with demand deposits as a % of total deposits decreasing from 48.5% at end-04 to 46.7% at mid-06. However, the trend was different after the August 2006 rate hike, with demand deposits increasing to 48.3% at end-06 from 46.7% mid-2006 (Exhibit 4). The trend was more evident for retail deposits than corporate deposits (Exhibit 5-6). We believe the trend was partly driven by the booming domestic A share market</FONT></P>

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