蒙特卡洛模拟论文-出自华盛顿大学原版

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Monte_Carlo_Kwak_Ingall.pdf (94.45 KB, 需要: 1 个论坛币)

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关键词：蒙特卡洛模拟 华盛顿大学 蒙特卡洛 华盛顿 蒙特卡 论文 华盛顿大学 蒙特卡洛

What's the main contents and the author of the paper?

Monte Carlo simulation is a useful technique for modeling and analyzing real-world
systems and situations. This paper is a conceptual paper that explores the applications
of Monte Carlo simulation for managing project risks and uncertainties. The benefits
of Monte Carlo simulation are using quantified data, allowing project managers to
better justify and communicate their arguments when senior management is pushing
for unrealistic project expectations. Proper risk management education, training, and
advancements in computing technology combined with Monte Carlo simulation software
allow project managers to implement the method easily. In the field of project
management, Monte Carlo simulation can quantify the effects of risk and uncertainty
in project schedules and budgets, giving the project manager a statistical indicator of
project performance such as target project completion date and budget.

more details, plz.

the area of risk management has received signifi cant recognition in the
fi eld of project management in recent years ( Kwak and Stoddard, 2004 ).
Project managers and their superiors discovered that the process of
identifi cation, analysis, and assessment of possible project risks benefi ts them
greatly in developing risk mitigation and contingency plans for complex project
( Charette, 1996 ). This planning, in turn, helps the project manager better
handle the diffi cult situations that invariably occur during projects, and therefore
allows for more successful project completion.
One method used by some project managers during the risk analysis process
is Monte Carlo simulation applications. This activity has been widely used for
decades to simulate various mathematical and scientifi c situations, and it is
mentioned often in project management curricula and standards, such as A
Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge ( Project Management
Institute, 2004 ) . Monte Carlo simulation has not yet, however, found a strong
footing in the actual practice of project management in the “ real world ” .
This paper reviews the applications of Monte Carlo simulation and its
relevance to risk management and analysis in project management. It also
outlines the uses of Monte Carlo simulation in other disciplines and in the
fi eld of project management. Finally, it discusses the pros and cons of Monte
Carlo simulation applications in project management environment, some
examples of proposed improvements or alternatives to Monte Carlo simulation,
and concludes with a recommendation that more project managers
should take advantage of this simple and useful tool in managing project risks
and uncertainties.

我准备买了， 希望没有失望。

怎么没人气，这个没有用？

不知道自己看得懂不

蒙特卡洛模拟在金融和运营里面都有很广的应用。是一个很实用的方法