Citi花旗 Asia macro & strategy outlook 120525——82页全英

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While growth risks are rising, hurdles to monetary easing are high for many inAsia — With the exception of Vietnam, China and India, our base case almosteverywhere else is an extended pause in monetary policy (MP). Future G4 centralbank (CB) policy action is another consideration for MP decisions. Still, Asian CBs’“rhetoric” has room to turn more dovish as oil price risk recedes, and growthvisibility becomes poorer.We assess the odds of additional MP easing if growth risks escalate based onfour factors — 1) vulnerability to downside growth risk; 2) where inflation is vis-àvisCB targets; 3) risks to external and financial imbalances from lowering ratesfurther; and 4) availability of counter-cyclical fiscal policy tools to support growth.

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