发帖
雷达卡
model{
for(i in 1:n){
tn[i] ~ dnegbin(p[i],r)
log(lambda[i])<-beta[1]+beta[2]*lsize[i]+beta[3]*control[i]+beta[4]*growth[i]+beta[5]*roa[i]+beta[6]*orisk[i]+beta[7]*lev[i]+beta[8]*cash[i]+beta[9]*ficris[i]+beta[10]*pcrate[i]+beta[11]*cdele[i]+beta[12]*pccd[i]+beta[13]*pcf[i]
p[i]<-r/(r+lambda[i])
di[i]<-1/p[i]
}
r~dgamma(0.001,0.001)
for(j in 1:13){
beta[j]~dnorm(0.0, 0.001)
}
lsize[] control[] growth[] roa[] orisk[] lev[] cash[] ficris[] pcrate[] cdele[] tn[] pcf[] pccd[]4.02 39 18 -4.91 56 110.9 -0.4 1 0.2 0 1 -0.94 1.145.24 24 19 8.84 1 44.8 0.3 0 0.0 0 1 1.88 2.384.68 39 -86 9.65 56 67.6 0.2 0 0.3 0 1 0.48 0.615.02 24 62 5.12 4 50.0 0.0 0 0.3 1 1 0.25 -0.204.88 32 -12 7.39 30 58.8 0.1 0 0.2 1 2 1.06 -0.875.21 22 -19 -4.84 2 54.9 -0.1 0 0.3 0 1 0.25 0.324.55 15 33 32.72 11 237.4 0.0 0 0.1 0 1 1.39 1.765.33 18 31 5.64 0 67.9 0.1 1 0.6 0 4 0.95 -1.155.14 28 -36 2.92 3 49.7 0.1 0 0.2 1 1 0.79 -0.655.15 34 117 2.46 3 44.1 0.2 1 0.8 1 5 1.95 1.545.12 24 36 10.94 4 99.8 0.1 1 0.4 1 4 0.16 0.125.03 29 -13 5.49 1 70.3 0.1 0 0.2 1 1 0.79 -0.654.98 41 8 2.48 5 54.9 0.0 0 0.3 0 3 0.53 0.674.90 43 9 5.86 1 44.5 0.1 0 0.3 0 2 0.31 0.404.22 23 47 3.81 10 53.7 -0.2 1 0.6 0 1 1.01 -1.245.31 28 -20 7.29 2 58.7 0.1 0 0.3 0 5 0.29 0.374.93 27 24 -14.50 9 39.0 1.5 0 0.8 1 1 -1.94 1.595.38 21 56 4.24 3 56.0 -0.2 0 0.6 1 1 -0.91 0.754.94 24 10 5.50 3 60.1 -0.1 0 0.6 1 3 -1.06 0.874.99 37 -11 -2.71 9 94.9 0.0 0 0.4 1 2 0.12 -0.105.26 35 -64 -47.27 29 75.4 -0.5 0 0.6 1 1 -0.91 0.753.90 23 -12 0.37 1 7.7 0.4 1 0.2 0 1 -1.09 1.335.15 28 23 7.65 2 73.4 -0.1 0 0.7 1 1 -1.40 1.154.26 29 -100 84.82 103 120.1 -0.3 0 0.6 1 1 -1.06 0.875.12 22 -42 43.14 37 166.2 -1.7 1 0.1 0 1 -1.39 1.704.66 19 19 4.31 3 8.1 -9.9 1 0.4 1 6 -0.06 -0.054.85 33 -20 5.77 5 64.8 0.1 0 0.7 1 4 -1.40 1.154.65 36 1 6.35 10 69.5 0.3 0 0.3 1 5 0.20 -0.164.84 43 30 8.14 3 34.9 -0.4 0 0.7 1 3 -1.40 1.154.98 36 8 4.10 15 44.6 0.0 1 0.4 1 3 0.28 0.225.83 16 -19 6.47 5 61.8 0.2 1 0.4 1 7 -0.06 -0.054.68 57 22 9.67 6 29.1 0.1 0 0.8 1 1 -2.04 1.675.56 36 2 8.07 5 45.4 0.2 0 0.6 1 4 -0.99 0.814.88 46 82 16.60 27 125.8 0.3 1 0.2 0 4 -0.90 1.104.93 22 -12 1.53 3 55.7 0.1 1 0.3 0 3 -0.41 0.504.65 25 431 -6.59 14 34.8 0.0 1 0.6 0 2 0.89 -1.094.80 27 4 2.09 6 42.6 0.1 0 0.4 1 1 -0.27 0.224.43 41 -87 -11.43 33 115.8 -0.2 0 0.5 1 1 -0.57 0.475.15 45 38 14.13 3 12.6 0.3 0 0.4 1 4 -0.23 0.185.37 7 67 5.84 2 58.2 0.2 1 0.5 1 4 0.34 0.274.91 44 34 7.29 8 38.4 -0.1 0 0.6 1 3 -0.91 0.755.28 49 43 9.08 1 63.6 0.1 0 0.7 1 1 -1.40 1.155.11 51 31 14.17 14 6.4 0.0 0 0.6 1 1 -0.91 0.754.41 63 21 27.06 5 38.1 0.2 1 0.3 0 1 -0.53 0.655.42 53 33 -16.04 9 82.8 -0.1 1 0.5 0 2 0.59 -0.725.41 49 -5 -7.04 19 53.4 0.2 1 0.6 0 4 0.89 -1.094.97 55 -3 8.80 4 36.7 -0.2 0 0.6 0 1 -1.18 -1.504.94 30 12 5.77 1 23.4 0.3 0 0.5 1 1 -0.57 0.475.81 36 105 14.89 2 53.9 0.3 0 0.3 0 1 0.53 0.686.28 53 22 5.14 3 77.9 0.0 0 0.6 0 4 -0.91 -1.154.67 20 -1 2.57 2 39.9 -1.6 0 0.3 0 1 0.41 0.525.24 22 -16 3.37 1 56.4 0.1 0 0.3 0 1 0.66 0.834.77 39 6 7.37 10 15.2 0.2 0 0.5 0 2 -0.32 -0.414.99 46 13 18.21 5 46.2 0.1 0 0.6 0 2 -0.86 -1.095.21 35 8 11.24 3 36.5 0.2 1 0.7 1 4 1.54 1.224.68 49 -17 -33.28 21 41.2 -0.1 0 0.2 1 1 0.90 -0.744.74 22 20 9.68 7 12.1 0.1 0 0.8 1 3 -1.94 1.594.75 29 51 6.76 1 32.3 -0.4 0 0.1 0 1 1.39 1.765.09 69 14 12.32 15 76.3 0.1 1 0.1 0 1 -1.44 1.764.96 26 10 15.66 3 34.4 0.0 1 0.6 1 2 1.10 0.874.97 27 23 2.47 3 43.0 0.1 1 0.7 1 5 1.66 1.314.85 41 24 10.02 15 61.3 0.1 1 0.1 0 1 -1.39 1.705.57 18 -7 8.41 4 63.3 0.2 1 0.6 0 2 0.84 -1.035.58 46 49 6.55 3 71.5 0.3 0 0.5 0 3 -0.57 -0.725.51 40 23 -0.36 4 75.7 0.3 0 0.8 1 7 -2.01 1.644.77 53 27 7.44 1 34.8 -0.1 0 0.2 0 1 0.80 1.024.57 25 -29 -11.57 7 22.5 0.0 0 0.1 0 1 1.34 1.705.80 23 12 5.81 1 54.1 0.2 1 0.8 1 4 1.91 1.515.51 25 381 8.00 2 40.6 0.2 0 0.2 0 1 0.90 1.145.48 21 20 6.42 3 48.3 0.0 1 0.8 1 11 1.91 1.515.35 21 -24 5.27 4 68.3 0.0 0 0.7 0 4 -1.55 -1.965.06 23 14 13.20 1 46.4 0.2 1 0.1 0 2 -1.39 1.704.85 48 -12 7.98 12 40.6 0.2 0 0.1 0 1 1.20 1.514.57 62 5 17.25 10 57.7 0.0 0 0.4 0 2 -0.08 -0.105.01 26 41 5.70 3 46.6 0.1 0 0.3 1 1 0.51 -0.425.29 29 27 3.31 0 55.4 0.0 1 0.6 1 2 1.10 0.874.89 49 -4 8.78 2 71.7 0.1 1 0.9 1 8 2.37 1.875.19 27 33 11.78 2 37.8 0.0 1 0.4 0 2 0.08 -0.105.26 50 85 5.08 2 61.2 0.0 1 0.5 1 3 0.44 0.355.75 18 10 12.93 4 34.5 0.2 1 0.0 0 1 -1.95 2.384.81 32 21 8.73 1 44.2 -0.1 1 0.6 0 4 1.23 -1.505.33 45 3 13.53 1 39.7 0.1 0 0.3 1 3 0.55 -0.454.80 37 -7 2.43 0 16.1 2.0 0 0.2 1 1 0.90 -0.745.04 37 14 12.39 2 9.9 0.3 1 0.1 1 1 -1.39 -1.105.73 52 -37 1.35 10 48.1 0.0 0 0.2 0 1 0.90 1.145.73 47 321 7.86 2 65.7 0.0 1 0.5 0 2 0.34 -0.415.34 5 40 11.77 3 54.4 0.0 0 0.3 1 2 0.66 -0.545.81 17 12 5.90 3 60.9 0.1 1 0.2 1 1 -0.94 -0.745.73 38 -18 -4.04 7 73.2 0.0 0 0.3 0 1 0.66 0.835.91 26 10 7.22 2 53.5 -0.1 1 0.6 1 7 0.89 0.715.82 52 6 16.45 5 38.0 0.1 1 0.6 1 14 1.25 0.995.00 33 8 3.44 3 48.9 0.1 1 0.6 1 9 1.23 0.975.92 24 -3 5.59 1 77.3 0.5 0 0.5 1 4 -0.51 0.424.94 26 40 3.63 2 52.1 0.1 0 0.4 1 1 -0.08 0.064.62 45 24 0.77 2 30.2 -0.2 0 0.2 1 1 0.80 -0.665.19 23 15 9.48 1 46.4 0.4 1 0.3 0 1 -0.43 0.524.60 27 -27 6.14 9 43.4 0.6 0 0.6 1 2 -1.18 0.975.96 42 52 11.25 1 52.5 0.3 0 0.2 1 1 1.00 -0.825.77 23 86 6.32 3 71.3 0.6 1 0.4 0 3 0.08 -0.105.25 24 6 8.78 0 46.4 0.2 0 0.1 0 3 1.34 1.705.31 61 13 23.57 4 13.5 0.3 0 0.3 1 1 0.41 -0.345.09 53 -23 3.17 3 10.6 0.7 0 0.4 0 1 -0.08 -0.105.54 14 203 0.35 2 6.9 0.2 0 0.4 0 3 -0.23 -0.295.20 41 24 10.48 4 47.9 0.2 1 0.5 1 2 0.59 0.474.70 47 200 3.42 2 62.3 1.1 1 0.5 1 5 0.80 0.634.72 70 -3 6.69 33 44.4 1.4 0 0.5 1 2 -0.57 0.475.71 24 10 5.99 4 17.9 0.0 1 0.5 1 2 0.59 0.475.08 28 193 8.46 2 74.1 0.1 1 0.4 0 6 0.08 -0.105.03 37 6 14.75 2 43.8 0.1 1 0.6 0 2 0.84 -1.035.66 42 -23 6.25 1 68.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0 1 1.34 1.705.92 58 129 16.41 4 54.2 -0.1 1 0.4 1 2 0.28 0.225.28 53 -13 8.45 1 70.1 0.7 1 0.7 0 2 1.45 -1.785.44 24 18 4.22 4 17.6 -0.1 0 0.3 1 1 0.26 -0.224.76 38 28 8.01 1 13.2 0.2 1 0.3 1 1 -0.43 -0.344.79 27 19 7.42 3 19.7 0.2 0 0.1 0 1 1.34 1.705.55 12 12 7.08 0 34.3 0.1 0 0.5 1 2 -0.57 0.475.24 24 33 8.95 4 52.2 0.0 1 0.6 1 2 1.30 1.034.84 49 37 12.46 1 42.9 0.0 1 0.6 1 6 1.10 0.874.77 30 13 18.36 2 7.7 0.2 0 0.3 1 1 0.26 -0.225.08 62 19 10.57 1 32.8 0.1 0 0.5 1 3 -0.57 0.475.08 22 12 18.60 3 29.8 0.2 1 0.4 1 3 0.08 0.065.40 57 21 12.82 1 15.7 0.1 1 0.3 1 1 -0.53 -0.425.53 39 30 9.66 2 68.4 0.0 1 0.3 0 2 -0.27 0.345.58 26 45 6.72 4 58.1 0.0 0 0.5 1 2 -0.32 0.274.80 27 17 9.89 17 25.4 0.3 0 0.6 1 1 -1.06 0.875.30 17 34 9.97 2 44.8 0.0 1 0.4 1 5 0.12 0.106.11 34 -3 11.30 2 50.7 0.2 0 0.3 1 1 0.26 -0.225.62 20 -10 10.61 1 27.3 0.1 0 0.4 1 1 0.04 -0.045.41 41 -2 6.01 1 51.2 0.1 1 0.0 0 1 -1.95 2.385.23 26 48 11.05 7 13.3 0.1 0 0.1 1 1 1.34 -1.105.28 31 0 7.26 1 47.7 0.2 1 0.4 0 2 0.08 -0.105.25 18 12 8.37 1 34.5 0.2 0 0.5 0 3 -0.57 -0.724.39 27 3 16.38 4 13.4 0.3 1 0.1 0 1 -1.32 1.615.78 48 21 8.45 11 31.0 0.2 1 0.3 0 2 -0.68 0.835.34 55 2 -0.26 5 49.4 0.1 1 0.5 0 3 0.52 -0.644.97 18 21 16.86 4 26.0 0.0 1 0.1 1 1 -1.39 -1.105.61 43 49 4.82 3 50.3 -0.2 1 0.3 1 6 -0.27 -0.225.21 20 34 6.90 2 36.5 0.0 0 0.5 1 4 -0.57 0.475.78 21 38 11.80 1 55.4 -0.1 1 0.5 0 1 0.34 -0.415.06 40 156 9.78 2 44.1 -0.1 0 0.3 0 2 0.56 0.714.49 30 -18 3.56 0 42.9 0.2 0 0.5 0 3 -0.73 -0.935.15 12 -16 7.86 3 46.3 0.0 0 0.2 1 1 0.90 -0.745.17 29 24 3.54 2 64.0 0.5 1 0.0 0 5 -1.84 2.255.44 34 9 12.23 2 29.9 0.1 1 0.3 0 1 -0.43 0.525.12 26 -25 0.01 2 14.5 0.3 0 0.7 1 1 -1.60 1.315.01 25 31 2.40 2 70.5 -0.2 1 0.0 0 1 -1.95 2.385.56 36 45 6.04 0 75.1 0.0 1 0.5 1 2 0.59 0.475.57 21 5 4.59 3 50.0 0.0 1 0.2 0 2 -0.94 1.145.31 42 96 15.18 11 55.1 0.1 0 0.3 0 2 0.26 0.345.14 38 -10 3.34 4 26.5 0.1 1 0.2 1 1 -0.83 -0.665.39 21 14 6.58 2 61.1 0.1 0 0.1 0 1 1.34 1.705.64 23 21 7.08 2 62.3 0.2 0 0.3 1 1 0.23 -0.195.66 30 42 12.07 2 37.0 0.1 1 0.4 1 6 0.05 0.044.98 21 -5 3.29 5 42.0 0.0 1 0.3 0 1 -0.68 0.834.65 9 16 18.84 3 15.2 0.2 0 0.2 0 2 0.90 1.145.16 23 -10 4.70 2 54.8 0.0 1 0.5 1 3 0.59 0.475.28 35 -5 8.94 2 89.1 0.2 1 0.5 1 1 0.59 0.475.01 23 30 3.70 6 38.8 0.0 0 0.6 1 4 -0.83 0.685.23 59 15 7.68 4 77.4 -0.1 1 0.5 1 5 0.34 0.274.97 26 17 5.45 0 54.6 0.3 0 0.1 0 1 1.34 1.705.37 16 6 11.82 3 42.2 0.2 1 0.5 1 4 0.75 0.604.95 24 -12 12.65 9 39.4 0.2 1 0.5 1 3 0.49 0.395.55 22 28 5.83 2 69.3 -0.1 1 0.1 1 1 -1.39 -1.105.90 41 -1 5.03 1 80.9 0.0 1 0.3 0 1 -0.43 0.525.34 21 -2 5.01 1 47.4 0.2 0 0.5 1 1 -0.57 0.475.41 14 34 10.99 1 40.2 0.1 0 0.2 1 1 1.02 -0.844.96 33 74 4.84 4 64.7 0.0 0 0.5 1 2 -0.57 0.475.36 10 1 4.06 10 29.4 0.1 1 0.6 1 5 0.95 0.755.23 20 -5 8.90 2 30.1 0.2 0 0.4 0 2 -0.22 -0.275.64 17 42 16.10 6 33.2 -0.5 1 0.3 1 3 -0.27 -0.226.10 63 -18 2.31 7 64.9 0.0 0 0.1 1 1 1.34 -1.105.37 20 15 5.64 0 56.9 0.1 0 0.5 1 2 -0.62 0.514.98 25 48 5.48 7 55.1 0.0 0 0.6 0 3 -1.18 -1.505.17 49 -2 24.02 11 21.9 0.1 0 0.3 1 2 0.26 -0.224.94 32 33 20.39 3 29.5 0.1 1 0.8 1 10 2.01 1.595.37 10 73 10.76 5 29.9 0.1 1 0.5 1 3 0.34 0.274.95 27 20 6.39 2 48.4 -0.1 1 0.3 1 1 -0.53 -0.425.47 17 37 8.99 2 44.3 0.1 1 0.2 0 2 -0.94 1.145.08 17 141 0.84 9 17.2 -0.1 0 0.0 0 1 1.88 2.385.37 21 62 13.27 2 38.4 0.1 1 0.4 1 7 0.30 0.245.39 71 -17 14.70 7 42.2 0.1 1 0.3 1 1 -0.43 -0.345.40 45 49 8.17 1 56.9 0.1 1 0.1 1 1 -1.24 -0.985.15 27 81 14.43 1 53.1 -0.1 1 0.2 1 1 -1.04 -0.824.64 49 35 7.88 3 13.4 0.4 1 0.0 0 1 -1.95 2.384.88 63 18 20.72 4 14.3 0.4 1 0.3 1 2 -0.27 -0.225.49 36 51 14.83 1 29.6 0.1 0 0.4 1 3 -0.08 0.06END
list(n=186)
list(beta[1]=0,beta[2]=0,beta[3]=0,beta[4]=0,beta[5]=0,beta[6]=0,beta[7]=0,beta[8]=0,beta[9]=0,beta[10]=0,beta[11]=0,beta[12]=0,beta[13]=0,r=0)
list(n=216)list(beta[1]=0,beta[2]=0,beta[3]=0,beta[4]=0,beta[5]=0,beta[6]=0,beta[7]=0,beta[8]=0,beta[9]=0,beta[10]=0,beta[11]=0,beta[12]=0,beta[13]=0,r=0)最后赋初始值时出错,winbugs提示“expected an equals sign"，本人无法解决，请大家帮忙查找问题，不甚感激！
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