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雷达卡
Wayne M. Morrison
Specialist in Asian Trade and Finance
June 26, 2012
Contents The History of China’s Economic Development............................................................................. 2China’s Economy Prior to Reforms........................................................................................... 2The Introduction of Economic Reforms.................................................................................... 2China’s Economic Growth Since Reforms: 1979-2012............................................................. 3Causes of China’s Economic Growth........................................................................................ 5Measuring the Size of China’s Economy......................................................................................... 8Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China..................................................................................... 10China’s Growing FDI Outflows..................................................................................................... 15China’s Merchandise Trade Patterns.............................................................................................. 17China’s Major Trading Partners............................................................................................... 21Major Chinese Trade Commodities......................................................................................... 22China’s Growing Appetite for Energy ..................................................................................... 24China’s Regional and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements.......................................................... 25Major Long-Term Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy........................................................ 26China’s Incomplete Transition to a Market Economy ............................................................. 26Industrial Policies and SOEs............................................................................................. 26The Banking System ......................................................................................................... 27An Undervalued Currency ................................................................................................ 27Implications of China’s “Unbalanced” Economic Growth Model .......................................... 28Overdependence on Exporting and Fixed Investment....................................................... 28Growing Pollution............................................................................................................. 30Other Challenges............................................................................................................... 31Plans Announced by the Chinese Government to Reform and Restructure the Economy ............ 32The Central Government Five-Year Plans............................................................................... 32The Drive for “Indigenous Innovation”................................................................................... 33Challenges to U.S. Policy of China’s Economic Rise ................................................................... 34
Figures Figure 1. Average Real GDP Growth Among Major Global Economies: 2008-2011 ..................... 5Figure 2. Comparison of Annual Changes in Total Factor Productivity in China and the United States: 2000-2011.............................................................................................................. 7Figure 3. Projections of U.S. and Chinese Annual Real GDP Growth: 2012-2030......................... 8Figure 4. Chinese and U.S. GDP as a Percent of Global Total: 1990-2011 and Projections through 2016............................................................................................................................... 10Figure 5. Industrial Output by Foreign-Invested Firms in China as a Share of National Total: 1990-2010......................................................................................................................... 11Figure 6. Share of China’s Exports and Imports Attributed to Foreign-Invested Enterprises in China: 1990-2012* .............................................................................................. 12Figure 7. Annual FDI Flows to China: 1985-2011 ........................................................................ 13Figure 8. Major Recipients of Global FDI Inflows in 2011........................................................... 13Figure 9. Annual U.S. FDI Flows to China: 1985-2011 ................................................................ 14Figure 10. China’s Annual FDI Outflows: 2002-2011................................................................... 16Figure 11. Major Sources of Global FDI Outflows in 2011 .......................................................... 17Figure 12. China’s Merchandise Trade: 2000-2011....................................................................... 19Figure 13. Annual Change in China’s Merchandise Exports and Imports: 1990-2011.................. 19Figure 14. Merchandise Exports by China, Germany and the United States: 1990-2011 ............. 20Figure 15. Merchandise Imports by China, Germany, and the United States: 1990-2011............. 20Figure 16. China’s Global Share of Merchandise Exports: 1990-2011 ......................................... 21Figure 17. China’s Net Oil Imports: 1997-2011 ............................................................................ 25Figure 18. Chinese Gross Savings, Gross Fixed Investment, and Private Consumption as a Percent of GDP: 1990-2011..................................................................................................... 29Figure 19. Chinese Disposable Personal Income as a Percent of GDP: 2000-2011 ...................... 30Figure 20. Current Account Balances as a Percent of GDP for China and the United States: 2000-2011 ....................................................................................................................... 35Figure 21. Sources of China’s GDP Growth: 2007-2011............................................................... 36Tables Table 1. China’s Average Annual Real GDP Growth: 1979-2012 ................................................... 4Table 2. Comparisons of Chinese, Japanese, and U.S. GDP and Per Capita GDP in Nominal U.S. Dollars and a Purchasing Power Parity Basis: 2011............................................ 10Table 3. Major Sources of FDI in China: 1979-2011..................................................................... 14Table 4. China’s Merchandise World Trade: 1979-2011................................................................ 18Table 5. China’s Major Trading Partners in 2011 .......................................................................... 22Table 6. Major Chinese Exports: 2011........................................................................................... 23Table 7. Major Chinese Imports: 2011........................................................................................... 23
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