发帖
雷达卡
Wayne M. Morrison
Specialist in Asian Trade and Finance
Marc Labonte
Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy
December 19, 2011
Contents Introduction and Overview of the Currency Issue........................................................................... 1Background on China’s Currency Policy......................................................................................... 22005: China Reforms the Peg.................................................................................................... 22008: RMB Appreciation is Suspended..................................................................................... 32010: RMB Appreciation is Resumed....................................................................................... 4Factoring in Inflation and Trade-Weighted Flows..................................................................... 5Concerns in the United States over China’s Currency Policy: Trade Deficits and Jobs............ 6Legislative Proposals to Address Undervalued Currencies..................................................... 10Legislation in the 112th Congress ............................................................................................ 10H.R. 639/S. 328................................................................................................................. 11S. 1619............................................................................................................................... 12S. 1130............................................................................................................................... 14S. 1238............................................................................................................................... 15The Obama Administration’s Position and Policies ................................................................ 15An Economic Analysis of the Effects of China’s Currency on the U.S. Economy........................ 16Is the RMB Undervalued, and If So, by How Much? ............................................................. 17Why Do Estimates of the RMB’s Undervaluation Differ so Much? ....................................... 18The Debate over the Effects of Exchange Rate Appreciation on Trade Flows and the Deficit................................................................................................................................... 21The Bilateral Trade Deficit Continued to Grow during the Previous Period of RMB Appreciation ......................................................................................................... 21The J Curve Effect............................................................................................................. 22The Role of Exchange Rate Pass-Through........................................................................ 22China’s Role in the Global Supply Chain ......................................................................... 22Underlying Macroeconomic Imbalances Are Unlikely to Disappear................................ 23Differing Opinions on Making RMB Appreciation a Top U.S. Trade Priority ................. 23Winners and Losers of RMB Appreciation from an Economic Perspective............................ 24Effect on U.S Exporters and Import-Competitors............................................................. 25Effect on U.S. Consumers and Certain Producers............................................................. 25Effect on U.S. Borrowers .................................................................................................. 26Net Effect on the U.S. Economy ....................................................................................... 26China’s Perspective and Concerns: Economic Growth and Stability ............................................ 28The Effects of an Undervalued RMB on China’s Economy.................................................... 29Policy Options for the RMB and Potential Outcomes................................................................... 31Current Account Balances, Savings, and Investment .............................................................. 35Chinese Investment and Consumption Relative to GDP................................................... 38Sources of China’s Economic Growth..................................................................................... 41
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