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Some time in the next couple of weeks，we think it is likely that President Trumpwill declare China a currency manipulator and propose penalties if it does notenter into negotiations to lower its trade surplus with the US.He has shown adetermination to deliver on his campaign promises and aggressively combattingChina＇s allegedly unfair currency and trade policies was an important promise.China has been trying to control the pace of depreciation in the CNY sincemid-2014 and since mid-2016 has been struggling just to keep it stable in trade-weighted terms.To do so，the authorities have had to reverse the previouspolicy of capital account liberalisation and renminbi internationalisation to an evergreater extent.They have also seen their foreign exchange reserves fall by 25%，mostly because of intervention to support their currency.
20170204-DEUTSCHE_BANK-GLOBAL_ECONOMIC_PERSPECTIVES：CHINA＇S_CURRENCY_POLICY_UN.pdf
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