JP摩根-Re-thinking the Greater China Growth Story

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China
Subject to normal economic cycles, but hard landing not likely
–Slowdown phase necessary and healthy after 2009 jolt
Inflation has peaked, national balance sheet remains sound
–Capacity for easing; Inflation print for October at 5.5%
Banking system can absorb local government debt and property slowdown
Hong Kong
Economic fortune tied to its destination appeal to the Mainland Chinese, “to live, to shop and to play”
RMB internationalization role inadvertently causing local liquidity crunch
Taiwan
Remains beneficiaries of smart-phone evolution
China tourism growth still in early stages
Market outlook
Attractive valuations given markets approaching 2008 trough, China looks the cheapest
Short-term earnings pressure but tremendous long-term growth prospects

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关键词：Thinking Greater Growth Great Story 供应链 摩根

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