Citigroup 花旗:中国白酒行业深度研究报告
-高端用户引领行业发展 (60页)
China Spirits Industry High-end Players Lead Industry Growth
10 April 2007 | 60 pages
Contents
Investment Thesis 3
Kweichow Moutai (Buy/Low Risk): Best growth visibility 3
Luzhou Laojiao (Buy/Medium Risk): Growth potential not priced in 4
Wuliangye (Hold/Medium Risk): A giant in the re-making 4
Shanxi Fenjiu (Sell/High Risk): Growth engine faces slowdown 4
Industry Competition 5
Chinese producers dominate the local spirits market 5
Market concentration is low 5
Industry growth: post-2004 recovery with rising ASPs 6
Top players benefit from entry barriers 6
Brands translate into stronger growth 7
Entry Barriers Result in Significant Pricing Power 8
Channel Management Makes a Long-term Difference 9
Tax Rate Unification in 2008 to Enhance Earnings 11
Companies 12
Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) 13
Initiate at Buy: Profiting from Franchise Value 13
Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) 23
Initiating at Buy: Growth from a Low Base 23
Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ) 35
Initiate at Hold: A Giant in the Re-making 35
Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SS) 45
Initiate at Sell: Growth Engine Faces Slowdown 45
Appendix A-1 57
Analyst Certification 57