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英文文献：Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations-通胀预期的分歧和偏差
英文文献作者：Carlos Capistrán,Allan Timmermann
英文文献摘要：
Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters’ costs of over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts; (ii) positive serial correlation in forecast errors; (iii) a cross-sectional dispersion that rises with the level and the variance of the inflation rate; and (iv) predictability of forecast errors at different horizons by means of the spread between the short- and long-term variance of inflation. We find empirically that these patterns are present in inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. A constant bias component, not explained by asymmetric loss and rational expectations, is required to explain the shift in the sign of the bias observed for a substantial portion of forecasters around 1982.
从调查数据中观察到的通胀预期分歧随着时间的推移而系统性地变化，反映了当前通胀的水平和差异。本文基于预测者对通胀预测过高和过低的代价不对称，对这些事实给出了一个简单的解释。我们的模型意味着(i)有偏差的预测;(二)预测误差正序列相关;随通货膨胀率的水平和差异而上升的截面离散度;(四)通过通货膨胀的短期和长期差异之间的差异，在不同范围内预测错误的可预测性。通过对专业预测者的调查，我们发现这些模式在通胀预测中存在。需要一个不变的偏倚成分来解释1982年前后相当一部分预测者观察到的偏倚符号的变化，而不是用不对称损失和理性预期来解释。
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