[娱乐]市场大腕们的原话

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原粘已經太長（https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-146287-1-1.html），所以在此題目下繼續紀錄市场实践者們的原話。

官员们的原话在这里记述：https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-186533-1-1.html

06/11， 美国市场近日有以下两个表现：

- The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note up 15 basis points to 5.10 percent.

- Oil touched a nine-month high last week, while regular gasoline was $3.22 a gallon on May 23, the highest pump priceever.

两个专家对因此有所评论 ：

James Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management in Boston, which oversees $192 billion， 说：`The rate expectation game has changed, and it has been quite a big adjustment,'' …``don't resume the upward march this week or next. It's too soon for the market to suddenly brush this off.''

Neil Wolfson, who oversees $32 billion as president ofWilmington Trust Investment Management in New York，说：``It certainly doesn't help that oil prices are going up,'' ``Rising inflation, all else being equal, is a negative factor.''

他在讲什么？

基本上，他们告诉您：市场前一段在期待联储降息，现在市场不敢肯定了。债券的收益率因此在上升（集，价格在下降）；证券市场因此受到牵连，近两个星期内恐怕不乐观。 同时，石油价格的上升像是雪上加霜。 油价上升能引起通胀，因此减息的几率更小。 所以，油价对债市股市是个利空。

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-6-13 4:00:42编辑过]

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关键词：expectation Investment Management Strategist adjustment 娱乐 大腕 原话

Fed Funds rate 目前是5.25%, 10-year Treasury Yield 是 5.14% 。 以下是华尔街各大公司对两个利率的年底预测。

Firm Year-end Fed Funds 10-year Treasury Yield

BNP Paribas 5.25 4.90

Banc of America 5 4.85

Barclays Capital 5.75 5.40

*Bear Stearns 5.50 5.10

Cantor Fitzgerald 5.25 5.40

Citigroup 5 4.85

Countrywide 4.75 4.70

Credit Suisse 5.25 5.35

Daiwa Securities 5.25 5.05

Deutsche Bank 5 5.25**

*Dresdner Kleinwort 5 NA

Goldman Sachs 5.25 4.90

Greenwich Capital 5.50 5.45

*HSBC Securities 4.50 4.30

J.P. Morgan 5.50 5.30

Lehman Brothers 5.25 4.90

Merrill Lynch 5.25 5.10

Mizuho 5.50 5.50

*Morgan Stanley 5.25 4.90

Nomura Securities 5.25 4.90

UBS 4.75 4.60

Average Forecasts 5.19 5.04

* Revision pending

** Reflects Treasury strategist forecast， economist forecast pending