[娱乐]格林斯潘 vs. 伯克南, Ok 还有周小川

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此题材下将陆续引用三位人物的妙语， 欢迎推荐灌水。

Greenspan (CSLA Japan Forum, 3/1): ``By the end of the year, there is the possibility, but not the probability of the U.S. moving into recession,''

Bernanke (congressional testimony, 2/28): ``there's a reasonable possibility that we'll see some strengthening of the economy sometime during the middle of the year.''

一日内新旧主席对美国经济公开发表不同观点。 一个厨房里挤着两个主妇？？？

周小川 （日前在接受香港媒体采访时）： 中国存在着流动性偏多的现象，但尚处于可控范围。流动性与股价水准之间并没有显著的实证关系。 （感谢 yuanhy）

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-3-2 23:07:24编辑过]

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关键词：格林斯潘 周小川 伯克南 Possibility Probability 娱乐 格林斯潘 周小川 伯克南

干脆将覆盖范围进一步扩大， 此话题将陆续引用各国央行官员的原话

继前两日格林斯潘 vs. 伯克南发表的对美国经济的评论后，美联储圣路易斯分支主席（Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, 中文翻译可能不确切）William Poole 3/2 在智利(03/02 Santiago, Chile) 说:

... while there ``could be a recession,'' the Fed doesn't forecast one and the consensus estimate is for growth above 2.5 percent in the coming year. ``We do not see a recession coming,'' While there's ``no guarantee, that's the outlook that we have' ...'

看得出，他明白现在的老板是谁。

Well, 又读一遍 William Poole 的话，发觉他更像格老。 他说 "could be" ，然后又说 "do not see ... no guarantee".

可能刮西风，但市场预测是温和的东风。。。 Fed 没有看到西风的迹象，但并不保证。

美国 （Ben Bernanke）、欧共体 （Axel Weber）、日本 （Atsushi Mizuno ）的央行官员在 三月五日表明他们最关心的仍然是通货膨胀。

他们对目前国际股票市场的漫不经意说明央行的态度：不要指望他们已减息的方式提携股市。

同日，Henry Paulson 说“。。。（美国）国外投资者对美国国债的持有对美国的经济没有威胁”（Paulson 是 U.S. Treasury Secretary， 他虽不是央行官员，但因其威望我们将其包括进来）

格老近日又说： 又三分之一的几率在今年出现美国经济萧条。 同一采访中格老又说：我们实在不能预测今后两年的经济。

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow （03/07, Jewish United Fund Luncheon in Chicago）："I still think that the underlying economic fundamentals are conducive to a pickup in growth as we move through 2007 and 2008. So I am not prepared to significantly change my projections at this time."

"Markets seemed to function well''

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairma and now a professor at Princeton UniversityAlan Blinder (03/07):

"Alan Greenspan may be distracting investors from the Fed's forecast that growth will strengthen this year ... It is a little bit of a problem. He is sort of stepping on the message. The Fed's message is things look pretty good and in particular we are not at all worried about a recession.''

Greenspan (03/15/07 remarks to the Futures Industry Association, Boca Raton, Florida):

``If subprime mortgage prices go down, we will have problems -- problems in the sense of spillover to other areas...''

现在才觉得要学的东西多么多,经济学实在是有趣的东西.

03/19

Ben S. Bernanke expects stronger economy.

Kevin Grice (senior economist at American Express Bank Ltd) says housing may change bias

Christopher Low (chief economist at FTN Financial) sees neutral bias then rate cut

Edgar Peters (chief investment officer at PanAgora Asset Management) expects rate hikes by Fed

Bruce Kasman (chief economist at JPMorgan Securities Inc) sees "tightening" of policy

Douglas Duncan (chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association) expects Fed to be "patient."

David Rosenberg (Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch Americas) expects 3 rate cuts this year

Diane Swonk (chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc) backs forecasts from Bernanke.

If you are not confused enough, calculate the average.