南方基金--宏观研究:热钱已经挟持中国经济
07.20 3页
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Benjamin Disraeli British politician (1804 - 1881)
Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
Mark Twain US humorist, novelist, short story author, & wit (1835 - 1910)
☆没有热钱,中国经济会怎样?
☆热钱导致GDP增长3.8个百分点,剔除热钱后,2007年上半年GDP真实增长率仅为7.7%;
☆没有了热钱,11.5%华丽的增长会持续吗?一旦考虑了热钱,无论是7.7%还是7.9%,都意味着中国经济已经被热钱挟持或者说绑架,以上分析,仅是假设热钱零进出,如果热钱突然大规模流出呢?经济增长率6个百分点上