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gas wave will not have any immediate impact on
upstream E&P and coal mining, the market has already
begun to anticipate abundant gas supplies coming in from
this new source. These are expected to put a dampener
on gas prices and eventually lead to structural changes in
energy consumption. Our analysis reveals a lack of
political and economic readiness (in the U.S.) to turn shale
gas into a significant export commodity. Various planned
LNG projects will come online in 2015 in small volume,
but in a big way in 2017-18. Hence, the real valuation
impact, especially on a DCF basis, should be in a project’s
terminal years. Factoring this into our valuations, the early
beneficiaries of the shale gas revolution will be pipe
makers and gas distributors.
More consolidation among coal miners. Higher gas usage
is likely to cap long-term upside in coal prices and result in
margin normalisation for miners. Shale gas’ pace of
development depends on future gas costs and Asia’s fuel
diversification strategy. Smaller miners are good takeover
targets (Hidili, HRUM) and long-term winners are
(Chinese) state-owned miners with strong balance sheets
(Shenhua and PTBA). Chinese miners are the most resilient
due to strong domestic demand. Indonesian miners are
the least affected among the seaborne players due to
their lower production costs. Our top sector pick is
Shenhua, as the prime beneficiary of sector consolidation.
We also have a Sell on Banpu for its weak earnings
outlook.
Long-term threat to petrochemicals and upstream players.
While supply from new shale gas capacity, at first sight,
looks like a tangible threat to Asian petrochemical
producers, we believe PTTGC, along with SCC and IRPC
are well-prepared to withstand the negative impact from
any new supply. At current share prices, we rate PTTGC as
our top pick in our Asian petrochemical universe
2012-12-04_星展唯高达_Energy & Coal Sector：Thematic piece.pdf
(729.14 KB)
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