America’s Hope Against Hope

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After a hard-fought election campaign, costing well inexcess of $2 billion, it seems to many observers that not much has changed inAmerican politics: Barack Obama is still President, the Republicans still control the House of Representatives, and the Democrats still have a majority in the Senate. WithAmerica facing a “fiscal cliff” – automatic tax increases and spending cuts atthe start of 2013 that will most likely drive the economy into recession unlessbipartisan agreement on an alternative fiscal path is reached – could there beanything worse than continued political gridlock?
In fact, the election had several salutary effects – beyondshowing that unbridled corporate spending couldnot buy an election, and that demographic changes in the United States may doom Republican extremism. The Republicans’ explicitcampaign of disenfranchisement in some states – like Pennsylvania, where theytried to make it more difficult for African-Americans and Latinos to registerto vote – backfired: those whose rights were threatened were motivated to turnout and exercise them. In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard lawprofessor and tireless warrior for reforms to protect ordinary citizens frombanks’ abusive practices, won a seat in the Senate.
Some of Mitt Romney’s advisers seemed taken aback by Obama’s victory: Wasn’t the electionsupposed to be about economics? They were confident that Americans would forgethow the Republicans’ deregulatory zeal had brought the economy to the brink of ruin, andthat voters had not noticed how their intransigencein Congress had prevented more effective policies from being pursued in thewake of the 2008 crisis. Voters, they assumed, would focus only on the currenteconomic malaise.
The Republicans should not have been caught off-guard by Americans’ interest in issues like disenfranchisement and gender equality. While theseissues strike at the core of a country’s values – of what we mean by democracy andlimits on government intrusion into individuals’lives – they are also economic issues. As I explain in my book The Price of Inequality, muchof the rise in US economic inequality is attributable to a government in whichthe rich have disproportionate influence –& and use that influence to entrench themselves. Obviously, issues likereproductive rights and gay marriage have large economic consequences as well.
In terms of economic policy for the next four years, themain cause for post-election celebration is that the US has avoided measuresthat would have pushed it closer to recession, increased inequality, imposedfurther hardship on the elderly, and impededaccess to health care for millions of Americans.
Beyond that, here is what Americans should hope for: astrong “jobs” bill – based on investments in education, health care,technology, and infrastructure – that would stimulate the economy, restoregrowth, reduce unemployment, and generate tax revenues far in excess of itscosts, thus improving the country’s fiscal position. They might also hope for ahousing program that finally addresses America’s foreclosurecrisis.
A comprehensive program to increase economic opportunityand reduce inequality is also needed – its goal being to remove, within thenext decade, America’s distinction as the advanced country with the highestinequality and the least social mobility. This implies, among other things, afair tax system that is more progressive and eliminates the distortions andloopholes that allow speculators to pay taxes at a lower effective rate thanthose who work for a living, and that enable the rich to use the Cayman Islandsto avoid paying their fair share.
America – and the world – would also benefit from a USenergy policy that reduces reliance on imports not just by increasing domesticproduction, but also by cutting consumption, and that recognizes the risksposed by global warming. Moreover, America’s science and technology policy mustreflect an understanding that long-term increases in living standards dependupon productivity growth, which reflects technological progress that assumes asolid foundation of basic research.
Finally, the US needs a financial system that serves all ofsociety, rather than operating as if it were an endin itself. That means that the system’s focus must shift from speculative and proprietary trading to lending and job creation, whichimplies reforms of financial-sector regulation, and of anti-trust andcorporate-governance laws, together with adequate enforcement to ensure thatmarkets do not become rigged casinos.
Globalization has made all countries more interdependent,in turn requiring greater global cooperation. We might hope that America willshow more leadership in reforming the global financial system by advocating forstronger international regulation, a global reserve system, and better ways torestructure sovereign debt; in addressing global warming; in democratizing the international economic institutions;and in providing assistance to poorer countries.
Americans should hope for all of this, though I am notsanguine that they will get much of it.& More likely, America will muddle through – here another little program forstruggling students and homeowners, there the end of the Bush tax cuts formillionaires, but no wholesale tax reform,serious cutbacks in defense spending, or significant progress on globalwarming.
With the euro crisis likely to continue unabated, America’s continuing malaise does not bode well for globalgrowth. Even worse, in the absence of strong American leadership,longstanding global problems – from climate change to urgently needed reformsof the international monetary system – will continue to fester. Nonetheless, we should be grateful: it is better to be standing still than it is to be heading in the wrongdirection.

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