一、 本月股市走势及主要经济数据 ............................................................ 4
1. 工业生产 ........................................................................................................ 4
2. 货币 ................................................................................................................ 4
3. PMI .................................................................................................................. 5
4. 消费 ................................................................................................................ 5
二、 后市判研——上涨 ............................................................................... 6
1. 社会消费品零售总额同比——方向向上...................................................... 6
2. PMI 供应商配送时间——方向向下(反向关系) ..................................... 7
3. PMI 新出口订单——方向向下 ...................................................................... 7
4. M0——方向向上 ............................................................................................ 8
5. 综合判断,后市上涨..................................................................................... 8
图表目录
图1 :工业增加值同比增速 ................................................................................ 4
图2 :M1同比增速、短期贷款余额同比增速 .................................................... 4
图3 :PMI 、PMI 新订单 .................................................................................... 5
图4 :PMI 购进价格、PMI 产成品库存 ............................................................. 5
图5 :社会消费品零售总额同比增速 ................................................................. 6
图8 :美元指数 .................................................................................................. 7
图6 :PMI 供应商配送时间 ................................................................................ 7
图7 :PMI 新出口订单 ....................................................................................... 8
图9 :M0 ........................................................................................................... 8
图10:线性加权多因素模型样本外择时效果 .................................................... 9
表 1:线性加权多因素模型(样本区间:2008.1-2012.12 ) ............................ 6
表 2:领先股市的多因素模型 ...............
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