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More growth, less fear: 2013 global economic outlook
• Growth momentum is building from a low base. Following a meagergain of 2.1% (4Q/4Q) last year, we project a return to trend. GlobalGDP is expected to rise at a 2.5% pace in 1H, accelerating above3% in the second half. If right, the global recovery will mark a turningpoint in 2013 following 2 years of subpar performance.
• The initial impetus for lift comes from the corporate sector thatturned cautious last year as margins were squeezed and concernsabout the Euro area and China intensified. In the event, consumerspending gains supported profit growth and an inventory adjustment.With abating Euro area stress and a lifting China further calmingfears, business activity is poised to rebound.
• Stronger business spending will boost the beleagured manufacturingsector where output stagnated for much of last year. Given theregion’s manufacturing exposure, Asia will be a key beneficiary.
• Despite a rebound in US business spending and housing, growth inthe US will trail behind the rest of the world at the start of the yearas more intense fiscal drag damps consumer spending.
• Tighter credit conditions have weighed heavily on the Euro area andemerging market economies. This drag is fading, and both regionswill experience stronger growth in 2013, with the Euro area exitingrecession in 1H13. However, Euro area bank deleveraging and theunwinding of easy EM credit in the aftermath of the global financialcrisis will persist, limiting the pick up in global growth.
• The legacy of two years of subtrend growth will be reflected in a fallin global inflation this year. This decline will be focused in the DM,where rising slack will combine with weak pricing power for globalmanufacturers to push core inflation well below central bank targets.In the EM, inflation will reverse course and move higher in Asia, beroughly stable in Latin America, and decline in EMEA EM. For theEM in aggregate, inflation should move toward the upper end ofcentral bank target zones.• The tension between low inflation, fiscal tightening, and the constraintposed by the zero interest rate bound represents a uniquechallenge for DM central bankers. While central bank balance sheetsare poised to expand further, innovations in communication policywill be the defining feature of the G-4 central bank landscape in2013. EM central banks are expected to be mostly sidelined, althoughAsian officials will be on guard for signs of overheating.
• The Fed and ECB have already introduced new policy initiatives.Next up is the Japan which is anticipated to begin a concerted effortto fight deflation as new leadership takes over the BoJ.
• Although the G-4 are still running significant budget deficits,progress on fiscal consolidation is being made. Debt/GDP is expectedto stabilize across the DM in 2014.
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