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DB_Adjusting to an Age of Surplus_20121217.pdf
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Grasping the Upside Potential ........................................................ 3Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 3
The Haves & the Have Nots ............................................................................................... 5
Updated Lower-48 Supply Forecast ................................................................................... 6
Understanding US Oil Supply Growth .......................................... 11
Pushing the rope .............................................................................................................. 11
A look backwards and forwards at the drivers of US oil supply ..................................... 12
Zero to Sixty in no time: Ramping the oil rig count ......................................................... 15
Steady improvement in well performance has been the biggest upside surprise .......... 16
The second leg of improvement likely to focus on capital efficiency, cost control and
drilling inventory ............................................................................................................... 18
As rig count growth slows, drilling efficiency picks up the slack ................................... 19
Sanish and Parshall - microcosms of the broader basin.................................................. 22
It’s Not Just an Oil Thing .................................................................................................. 24
Inventory - Piecing together one of the final pieces of the puzzle ................................... 25
The Economics of Unconventional Development ............................................................ 30
What does the Producer Data Say? ................................................................................. 38
Why it’s Not Natural Gas All Over Again ......................................................................... 41
Looking for the Next Leg - Exploration plays failing to gain traction .............................. 43
Key Risks .......................................................................................................................... 45
Oil Basin Background ................................................................... 46
Williston Basin - Bakken ................................................................................................... 46
Maverick Basin - Eagle Ford ............................................................................................. 52
Permian Basin – Wolfcamp and Bone Springs ................................................................ 58
Denver-Julesburg Basin - Niobrara .................................................................................. 65
Appendix A ................................................................................... 70
Historical Production ........................................................................................................ 70
Appendix B ................................................................................... 71
Bakken IP rates by County ............................................................................................... 71
Eagle Ford IP rates by County .......................................................................................... 72
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