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2012-11-19 (JPMorgan) Asian Year Ahead 2013 _ Stock Ideas for the Year of the S.pdf
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Asian Year Ahead—Stocks for the Year of the Snake
What to own
Banks: China and India
Consumer: Prefer discretionary vs. staples; product mix
improvement stories, expanding modern retail
Tech: New product cycles, smartphones and tablet PC
Autos: SUVs and luxury segment
Infrastructure: China government FAI*, North Asia
E&C
Insurance: Life insurers with strong agency business
Real Estate: Integrated property companies ex China
Utilities: Hong Kong, Thailand, China and Korea
Telecom: Developed market integrated operators
Smaller sectors in countries: Gaming, Chinese internet
and healthcare
Focus on sectors within countries rather than country
recommendations
(* There is a conflict between strategy team and sector view. Please see
strategy and sector pages for details)
What to avoid
Banks: Indonesia*, Thailand*, Hong Kong and Singapore
Autos: Low-to-mid-range car segment
Real Estate: China
Energy: Oil, refining and petrochemicals
Utilities: Power equipment makers
The resultant country allocation
OW: India, the Philippines and Thailand
UW: Australia, China, Korea (downgrade), Singapore
(downgrade) and Taiwan (downgrade)
For more on our country and sector head views please see
country and sector pages (73 to 147)
105 top picks
(See pages 157 to 367)
Examples of top picks
Top picks - examples Country
Return to our PT
(%)
Siam Commercial Bank Thailand 27
Quanta Computer Taiwan 25
Samsung Electronics South Korea 33
Ayala Land Philippines 30
ICBC China 22
Axis Bank India 15
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: To PT = Returns to analyst price target as at 14 Nov
2012. Stocks with 3m average trading value greater than US$20 million.
60 stocks to avoid
(See pages 369 to 489)
Examples of stocks to avoid
Stocks to avoid - examples Country
Return to our PT
(%)
HTC Corp Taiwan (57)
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Australia (23)
DongFeng Motor Co., Ltd. China (23)
Yanzhou Coal Mining - H China (21)
PetroChina Hong Kong (20)
Chimei Innolux Corporation Taiwan (20)
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: To PT = Returns to analyst price target as at 14 Nov 2012.
Stocks with 3m average trading value greater than US$20 million.
The year-ahead process
The goal of this document is to present our key strategy
themes for 2013 using our most and least favored stocks
from the 1097 and 557 stocks in emerging markets and
developed Asia covered by J.P. Morgan.
Both J.P. Morgan equity research analysts and our
macroeconomic team have been involved in the production
of this document. The process started with the Strategy
Team briefing analysts on our key themes and
macroeconomic forecasts for 2013. Analysts then reviewed
their earnings models and presented their top picks and
stocks to avoid to both their sector and country strategists.
The sector and country teams then produced their list of top
long and short ideas. These ideas form the core of this
document.
Table of contents
Investment strategy ............................................................ 4
Potential surprises for the year of the Snake .................... 25
Economic outlook ............................................................ 47
Economic forecasts .......................................................... 67
Country strategy .............................................................. 73
Sector strategy ................................................................. 97
Summary tables of stock ideas ...................................... 143
Top picks ....................................................................... 157
Stocks to avoid .............................................................. 369
Strategy dashboards ....................................................... 491
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