高盛：2013年中国连锁百货行业研究报告（免费）

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Table of contents
Executive summary: position for 2013 growth recovery but be selective 3
Cyclical headwinds turning, structural challenges priced in 3
Top picks: Intime (adding to CL), Golden Eagle, Lifestyle (upgrade from neutral) 4
The attack of shopping mall? Structural challenge largely priced in 8
China department store industry under 5 competitive forces 8
Cyclical turning more positive in 2013 as macro stabilizing 10
Too many shopping space? Still below long term potential 11
The attack of the mall? Department store has better return but trades at a discount 14
To lease or not to lease? A structural risk for operators who lease their stores 16
Ownership of store assets differs across operators 16
Retail rent is on the rise 17
What if rent increase by 50%? 18
What are the options? 20
The two dimension of growth: SSSG and new store ramping up 21
1. Best SSSG: Intime and Golden Eagle 21
2. Who had the best track record in opening new stores? Intime again 23
Intime (1833.HK, CL Buy): Sector leading growth to drive outperformance 25
Golden Eagle (3308.HK, Buy): sustained growth and return leadership 30
Lifestyle (1212.HK, Buy): high quality assets, sustainable return, upgrade to Buy 32
Parkson (3368.HK, Neutral): weak outlook priced in 34
Maoye (848,HK, Neutral): sector lagging growth and return, downgrade to Neutral 36
NWDS (825.HK, Neutral): lowest return in sector, fairly priced 39
Disclosure Appendix 41

ChinaRetail：ShoppingforgrowthandreturninChinadepartmentstores（201301240002GH00JO）.pdf (742.08 KB)

2013-1-25 16:20:07 上传

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关键词：行业研究报告 中国连锁 研究报告 百货行业 行业研究 2013 long department challenge potential

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