2010年2月中国连锁百货行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国连锁百货行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
China Dept. Stores
Tale of Two Halves: Looking
Beyond Macro Uncertainties
Conclusion: We maintain our view of a fundamental
recovery story for the sector in 1H 2010. While we
recognize macro uncertainties will continue to put
pressure on share prices in the near term, we would look
for buying opportunities on the back of the market
correction and industry valuations become attractive.
We believe share prices will be supported by: 1)
improving SSSG and concession margin; 2) continuing
M&A; and 3) strong correlation between forward P/E
relative to forward 3MMA in SSSG, which we believe
should continue to trend up in 1H10. The sector P/E
multiple has fluctuated between 20~25x in the past six
months and currently stands at 21x. Notwithstanding
substantial declines in property prices and consumer
confidence, we expect earnings growth for the covered
retailers to range b/w 20~50% in 2010 or a 3-yr CAGR of
20~33%. Given recovering fundamentals in 2010 and
healthy industry growth outlook in the medium term, we
revise our target P/E valuation range to 23~30x (up from
20~25x); putting industry PEG at ~1.0x.
Stock Picks – A Valuation Call: NWDS is our new
top pick. We upgrade NWDS (#1) to OW as we think its
risk-reward profile has become more attractive trading at
16.7x CY10e P/E, or 28% discount to Parkson. The
company’s SSSG picked up in Dec’09 (based on our
estimates) and we believe this trend will continue in
1H10. While various structural concerns of its store
network remain unresolved, we believe the valuation
discount relative to its peers is overdone. Positive price
catalyst should come from 1~2 managed-store
acquisitions that the management has guided (see pg.
20). Next, we prefer Intime (#2), an overlooked
franchise w/ LT upside, in our view. We believe the
Street is underestimating Intime’s opportunities over the
next few years (see pg. 2). Intime’s focus on profitability
improvement is gaining traction and a 2010 turnaround
appears intact. Valuations of the two sector leaders
(Golden Eagle #3 and Parkson #4) are still relatively
expensive, and their share prices would be more
vulnerable in the current market environment, in our
view. But we look for both stocks to trade up when the
market stabilizes and macro uncertainties are behind us

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关键词：行业研究报告 中国连锁 研究报告 行业研究 百货行业 中国 研究报告 行业 连锁 百货

谁买的起啊

这个价格也太搞了吧。。。。

贵死个人。

估计就一个目录而已。。。。

这个 太搞了！

楼主太幽默了

抢劫啊，这么贵，哪买得起啊？

真敢要价。。

买了是假的怎么办？