中国未来经济增长的挑战，到2013年经济增长率可能会下降到1%

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  一份标准的宏观分析文章，国外的经济学家写的，很值得看一看。

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关键词：经济增长率 经济增长 中国未来 未来经济 增长率 未来 中国 增长率

Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth

是新的吗？

简介一下嘛，哥们。

文章是1月份写的，但是是刚刚公布的。
Abstract  ：

The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid pace for over thirty years. Most of this growth has come from higher labor productivity, while growth of employment has diminished along with a slower rate of increase in the working-age population. This paper looks at the challenges that China will face over the next two decades in maintaining its rapid pace of economic growth, especially as working-age population growth slows further and then begins to decline. Key questions include whether China will be able to continue to devote nearly half of its GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive as the capital-labor ratio continues to rise, whether labor participation and employment rates will fall as the population becomes
rural, and whether future shifts out of rural employment will go more toward the services rather than the manufacturing sector, where productivity is higher. In the baseline scenario economic growth falls gradually from its current pace of about 10 percent to near 6½ percent by 2030. However, a combination of less optimistic, but still reasonable assumptions, results in a reduction in the growth rate to about 1½ percent by 2030.