Global Aerospace Monitoring and Disaster Management

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2012
Global Aerospace Monitoring and Disaster ManagementAuthors:

• Valery A. Menshikov,
• Anatoly N. Perminov,
• Yuri M. Urlichich
• …show all 3hide
  

ISBN: 978-3-7091-0809-3 (Print) 978-3-7091-0810-9  (Online)



Menshikov, Valery A., Perminov, Anatoly N., Urlichich, Yuri M.

2012, XXI, 328 p.

ISBN 978-3-7091-0810-9

  Immediately available per PDF-download (no DRM, watermarked)

About this book

• Methods of detecting and forecasting of both natural disasters and technogenic catastrophes are described
•                                         Existing global and regional monitoring systems are described
•                                         The role that space information systems could play in risk management is determined
  

In this book, space systems are situated in the global processes of the 21st century’s information society and the role that space information systems could play in risk management is determined; methods of detecting and forecasting of both natural disasters and technogenic catastrophes and existing global and regional monitoring systems are described; and the IGMASS is introduced with its architecture and design concept and social and economic aspects and estimates of its creation, development, and utilization. Finally, results of the international symposium held in Limassol, Cyprus, in November 2009 in preparation of the IGMASS project’s submission to the United Nations are discussed.

Contents
1 Natural Calamities and Their Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Natural Calamities of Geological Origin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.1.1 Earthquakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.1.2 Volcanic Eruptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.1.3 Tsunami . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.2 Meteorological Natural Calamities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.2.1 Cyclones, Tornados, Squalls, Typhoons, and Hurricanes . . . . . . 17
1.2.2 Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.2.3 Droughts and Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.3 The Aftermath of a Natural Calamity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.3.1 Killed and Injured . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.3.2 Economic Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
1.4 Aerospace Predictions of Geological Natural Calamities . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.4.1 Earthquake Precursors and Their Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
1.4.2 Volcanic Eruption Precursors and Their Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
1.4.3 Detecting Geological Calamity Precursors from Space . . . . . . . . 61
1.4.4 Problems in Practical Prediction of Seismic
Activity and Their Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
2 Technogenic Emergencies: Can They Be Reliably Predicted? . . . . . . . . 83
2.1 Technogenic Disasters in the Modern World: Classification,
Facts, Consequences, and Tendencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
2.2 Man-Made Disasters and Emergencies in Russia:
Causes and Consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
2.3 Harbingers of Technogenic Emergencies
and Ways to Forecast Them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
2.4 Geodynamics, Seismic Location, and Prospects for Forecasting
Technogenic Emergencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
vii
2.5 Forecasting of Man-Made Disasters and the Role
of Space Systems in its Practical Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
3 Global Risks and Threats to Humanity from Outer Space:
Prospects of Warning and Parrying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
3.1 The Risk and Threat from Asteroids and Comets: Are They
Really Dangerous? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
3.1.1 Historical Background of the Hazards of Near-Earth
Objects: Some Estimates of Collision Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
3.1.2 NEO Detection, Impact Predictions, and
Early-Warning Efforts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
3.2 Contemporary NEO Collision Avoidance Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
3.2.1 Common Approaches to Parrying the Threat of NEOs . . . . . . . 157
3.2.2 Planetary Defense Concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
3.2.3 Some Principles Concerning the Adaptation of Space
Rocketry Facilities for Asteroid and Comet Threat
Mitigation Missions (Russian Approach) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
3.3 Other Global Risks and Threats in Space and from Outer Space . . . . 190
3.3.1 Risks and Threats from Solar Activity
and Solar Cycle Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
3.3.2 Risks and Threats from Space Junk (Debris) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
3.3.3 Risks and Threats to Humanity Connected
with Abnormal Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
4 The Conception of the International Global Monitoring
Aerospace System (IGMASS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
4.1 Analysis of the Development of the Emergency
Monitoring Space Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
4.2 Purpose of the Creation of IGMASS and Its Missions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
4.3 The Main Principles of the Creation of IGMASS
and General Requirements for the System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
4.4 Structure and Formation of IGMASS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
4.5 Organizational and Technical Background of IGMASS
Project Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
4.6 Stages of IGMASS Project Realization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
4.7 Some Cost Estimates of IGMASS Project Implementation . . . . . . . . . . 259
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
viii Contents
5 Space Exploration and Formation of the “Information Field of Global
Security”: A New Paradigm of Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
5.1 Space Facilities and the Formation of the Information Society
of the Twenty-First Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
5.2 Humanitarian Aspects of IGMASS Project Implementation . . . . . . . . . 273
5.2.1 Distance Learning and Distribution of Space Education . . . . . 273
5.2.2 Telemedicine and Emergency Medicine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
5.3 The IGMASS Project as a Potential Tool for Evolving the
“Planetary Security Information Field” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325

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