Journal of Development Economics（1995-2008）持续更新中

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大放送：Journal of Development Economics（1995-2007）持续更新中

Volume 46, Issue 1, Pages 1-202 (February 1995)
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157361.rar (9.33 MB) [/UseMoney]
 1、Editorial Board Pages ii-iii
 2 Group lending, repayment incentives and social collateral Pages 1-18 Timothy Besley and Stephen Coate    In this paper, we investigate the impact on repayment rates of lending to groups which are made jointly liable for repayment. This type of scheme, especially in the guise of the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, has received increasing attention. We set up and analyze the ‘repayment game’ which group lending gives rise to. Our analysis suggests that such schemes have both positive and negative effects on repayment rates. The positive effect is that successful group members may have an incentive to repay the loans of group members whose projects have yielded insufficient return to make repayment worthwhile. The negative effect arises when the whole group defaults, even when some members would have repaid under individual lending. We also show how group lending may harness social collateral, which serves to mitigate its negative effect.  3 Civil institutions and evolution: Concepts, critique and models Pages 19-33 Kaushik Basu    The paper examines the relation between civil norms and evolution. The survival of norms in the long run may depend on the evolutionary process and natural selection. The sieve of natural selection may ensure that norms which persist must have minimal efficiency properties. This paper begins with a general discussion of evolutionary processes and the survival of civil institutions. It then presents an introductory account of the theory of evolutionary games. It is argued that the model of evolutionary games is more suited to analyzing animal behaviour than the human one. Since it is the latter that is of interest to economists, an attempt is made in this paper to develop some new solution concepts which are more apt for human games.  4 Wage structure as implicit insurance on human capital in developed versus underdeveloped countries Pages 35-50 Lars Ljungqvist    This paper explores the role of wage structure as implicit insurance on human capital. It illustrates how smaller wage differentials in the developed world can be welfare-enhancing by acting as implicit insurance while larger wage differentials in underdeveloped countries make investments in human capital riskier. In other words, with smaller wage differentials, the students in a developed country are insured against poor educational outcomes through the existence of well-paid alternative employments which are not present in the economy of a less developed country. This result arises as multiple equilibria in a general equilibrium model when there are no insurance markets for human capital.  5 Can unobserved land quality explain the inverse productivity relationship? Pages 51-84 Dwayne Benjamin    An inverse relationship between both farm productivity and labor intensity, and farm size, is a common empirical finding in developing country agriculture. The traditional explanation has been imperfect labor markets. Recently, it has been suggested instead that the inverse relationship is a statistical artifact resulting from omitted land quality. Using a farm-level data set from Java, I investigate whether omitted variable bias can explain the inverse relationship. I show that the inverse relationship and accompanying wage responses are inconsistent with a model of neoclassical farm behavior that ignores omitted variable bias. Instrumental variables techniques yield parameter estimates in which the inverse relationship is eliminated and the estimated wage elasticities are more in line with economic theory. Further econometric investigation hints that a model of omitted land quality may be a possible source of the inverse relationship. These results emphasize the importance of considering the sources of cross-sectional variation in estimating microeconomic relationships.  6 Agro-export production and peasant land access: Examining the dynamic between adoption and accumulation Pages 85-107 Bradford Barham, Michael R. Carter and Wayne Sigelko    New technologies and export opportunities have often contributed to dualistic agrarian structure and intense social conflict in Latin American. A switching regression model developed in this paper explicitly links export adoption and land accumulation patterns controlling for pre-existing differentiation processes. Applied to survey data gathered from peasant households in Guatemala, the model provides evidence of equitable structural change induced by a recent export boom in vegetable crops. However, the optimism of these results is tempered by consideration of the unfavorable longer term market dynamics confronting small-scale producers.  7 Multinational firms and export performance in developing countries: Some analytical issues and new empirical evidence Pages 109-122 Premachandra Athukorala, Sisira Jayasuriya and Edward Oczkowski    In a given developing-country environment, are the affiliates of MNEs more export oriented than wholly domestic-owned firms? No clear conclusions emerge from the theoretical models or the few available empirical studies of this issue. This paper draws attention to methodological flaws of these studies and presents new empirical evidence through the application of a more appropriate econometric procedure to data from Sri Lanka. We find no significant relationship between MNE affiliation and the degree of export orientation of exporting firms. On the other hand, there is evidence that multinational affiliation is an important determinant of whether a firm is an exporter or not.  8 Comparative productivity of Korean manufacturing, 1967–1987 Pages 123-144 Dirk Pilat    This paper compares productivity levels in South Korean manufacturing with those in the USA, for 13 manufacturing branches. The comparison is based on specific industry of origin purchasing power parities. Value added per hour worked in Korean manufacturing rose from only 4.5 percent of the US level in 1967 to more than 18 percent in 1987. Total factor productivity rose from only 9 percent in 1967 to 26 percent of the US level in 1987. At a more detailed level, especially the leather, metals and machinery industries have reached high productivity levels, some of which approach levels in European manufacturing. The considerable labour productivity gap between Korea and the United States can partly be explained by capital intensity, structural effects, size effects and levels of education.  9 Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia Pages 145-161 Linda Kamas    This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy under the crawling peg in Colombia utilizing Granger Causality tests, variance decompositions, and impulse response functions from VARs. Several alternative lag selection criteria are used to specify the lag structures of the VARs. Variations in domestic credit appear to affect the balance of payments but not the exchange rate in Colombia, suggesting that the crawling peg has functioned more like a fixed than a flexible exchange rate. The size of the balance of payments offset is relatively large, but the models differ on its size. Domestic credit appears to have a weak effect on national output. Neither domestic credit nor the exchange rate play much of a role in explaining variation in inflation in Colombia. Inflation appears to be primarily inertial and the result of demand shocks. The results are consistent with the recent difficulties encountered in maintaining monetary targets in Colombia, and the persistence of inflation under contractionary monetary policy.  10 A model-based estimation of the probability of default in sovereign credit markets Pages 163-179 Fausto Hernandez-Trillo    A model of sovereign credit markets is built to estimate the probability of default. The model shows that equilibrium implies credit rationing and that it is inadequate to include both the level of debt and the spread over LIBOR as determinants of this probability. Likewise, the model incorporates the idea of sanctions in case of default and it is demonstrated that they play an important role in deterring a country from defaulting. The elements that are found useful in explaining the probability of default are: the degree of openness, a degree of ‘unluckiness’, international reserves and the risk-free interest rate. Mode was validated for 33 debtor countries. The empirical results suggest that economic liberalization decreases the probability of default, which implies that such a policy enhances creditworthiness. Also, they suggest that external conditions have contributed substantially to the financial crisis tat major borrowers face today; in particular, unluckiness and the persistence of shocks are shown to be important when explaining the probability of default. In addition, penalties reduce the DWL inherent in defaulting. The determinants of the spread over LIBOR are tested separately as an important implication of the model.  11 Increasing returns, urban unemployment, and international capital mobility: A trade policy analysis Pages 181-193 Anil K. Lal    This paper compares the effects of tariffs, quotas and VER, both with and without international capital mobility, for a small open economy facing urban unemployment of unskilled labor and external increasing returns in the manufacturing sector. Expressions for the shadow price of foreign exchange and capital are derived under each type of trade restriction. It is shown that international capital mobility in such an economy unambiguously lowers the welfare cost of all forms of trade restriction, in contrast to the existing literature on full employment CRS economy, where international capital mobility unambiguously raises the welfare cost of tariff protection.  12 The shadow price of foreign exchange in a dual economy Pages 195-202 Chi-Chur Chao and Eden S. H. Yu    This paper examines the shadow price of foreign exchange for a dual economy with tariffs, quotas, or VERs. We show that the shadow exchange rate is greater than the official rate in the presence of tariffs, whereas it is greater or smaller than the official rate in the presence of quotas, depending upon whether capital is sector-specific or perfectly mobile. Furthermore, the shadow exchange rate is unambiguously smaller than the official rate for the VER case when capital is intersectorally mobile. The rate, however, may be larger than the official rate when capital is sector-specific. The practical implications of the results for project appraisal are also discussed. 



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关键词：Development Economics Economic Develop econom Economics Journal Development

Volume 46, Issue 2, Pages 203-412 (April 1995)

Volume 46, Issue 2, Pages 203-412 (April 1995)

157363.rar (8.84 MB, 需要: 30 个论坛币) 1.    Productivity, contracting modes, and development Pages 203-231 Hadi Salehi Esfahani and Dilip Mookherjee    This paper offers a theoretical explanation for the significant variations in labor productivity over time and across countries that past empirical studies have failed to explain by variations in measurable inputs alone. We argue that firms employ high-powered incentive contracts to achieve high ‘X-efficiency’ only when the gains from increased productivity outweigh the informational rents firms must pay to create the necessary incentives. The market has a tendency to sustain too few incentive contracts since they generate pecuniary externalities to workers that are not internalized by private employers. This tendency diminishes with factors that increase the opportunity cost of labor and lower the rate at which future incomes are discounted. This helps explain why technological progress, capital accumulation, financial development, and socio-economic stability tend to be accompanied by institutional innovations that compound their direct contributions to productivity. Our model implies that under reasonable conditions, wage or production subsidies, increased competition among firms in the labor market, and small doses of protection from foreign competition can improve both productivity and welfare.   2.    Control in a dynamic village economy: The reforms and unbalanced development in China's rural economy Pages 233-252 Scott Rozelle and Richard N. Boisvert    A dynamic control framework is used to model the Chinese village economy in order to explain the rural sector's unbalanced growth in the post reform period. Village leaders are assumed to maximize a multi-attribute utility function by manipulating local policy instruments subject to the structural relationships in the economy. The model's parameters are estimated econometrically using a data set from forty villages in eastern China. The empirical results identify important linkages between agriculture and rural industry in village economies. Unbalanced growth can partially be explained by the way economic incentives induce individuals in rural areas to move resources toward the rural industrial sector and away from agriculture.   3.    General equilibrium effects of investment incentives in Mexico Pages 253-269 Andrew Feltenstein and Anwar Shah    Mexico has experimented with a number of tax instruments designed to promote private capital formation. Among such initiatives are general and industry specific tax credits, employment tax credits, and corporate tax reductions. This paper examines the relative efficacy of such instruments using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Model simulations with Mexican data are carried out using three equal yield investment incentive scenarios. We find that a corporate tax reduction has the most stimulative impact on investment. The results emphasize the importance of using an open economy model. Unlike, for example, investment tax credits, tax rate reductions increase the demand for all capital rather than new capital alone. Hence the public increases its holdings of domestic debt, causing the price of domestic bonds to rise, real interest rates to fall, and domestic investment to increase.   4.    Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: Evidence from Mexico Pages 271-293 John H. Rogers and Ping Wang    We study the sources of fluctuation in output and inflation for Mexico, considering fiscal, real, money growth, exchange rate, and asset market disturbances, which are identified using an estimable equilibrium model incorporating important features of high-inflation economies. Changes in inflation are influenced by all shocks, while output growth is explained by real, fiscal, and asset shocks. The results lend strong support to the fiscal view of inflation, and to a lesser degree support the balance of payments view. We also find that higher inflation and higher budget deficits cause each other to spiral upward.   5.    Inflation dynamics and the parallel market for foreign exchange Pages 295-316 Stephen Morris    Pinto (1990) in World Bank Economic Review 3, 321–338, showed that unification of official and ‘parallel’ market exchange rates may lead to an increase in steady-state inflation, because of the fiscal impact of real official exchange rate changes. This paper shows how this, and other comparative static and stability results in Pinto (1990), are reversed under the assumption that official exchange rate devaluation reduces money creation in the economy. It is argued that this was the case for Uganda in the 1980s, and we give a simple rule of thumb for estimating when unification will increase or decrease steady-state inflation.   6.    The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation Pages 317-340 Patricio Arrau, José De Gregorio, Carmen M. Reinhart and Peter Wickham    Traditional specifications of money demand have been commonly plagued by persistent overprediction, implausible parameter estimates, and highly autocorrelated errors. This paper argues that some of those problems stem from the failure to account for the impact of financial innovation. We estimate the demand for money for ten developing countries, employing various proxies for financial innovation, and provide an assessment of the relative importance of this variable. We find that financial innovation plays an important role in determining money demand and its fluctuations, and that the importance of this role increases with the rate of inflation.   7.    Threshold effects in international lending Pages 341-356 Mark M. Spiegel    A growth model of international borrowing subject to a credit constraint is developed for an economy with increasing returns to capital. Unlike constant-returns models, the equilibrium credit constraint as a share of the capital stock is increasing in the capital stock. Increasing returns also enhance the potential for ‘long-term’ lending strategies, which may be related to rescheduling and concerted lending. Using simulations with parameter values that do not favor these strategies under constant returns, we show that a long-term lending strategy may dominate a myopic lending strategy.   8.    Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination Pages 357-378 Carmen M. Reinhart and Carlos A. Végh    Exchange rate-based stabilization programs in chronic-inflation countries have often been accompanied by an initial expansion of private consumption followed by a contraction. This consumption cycle has been attributed to lack of credibility, in the sense that the public views the reduction in the devaluation rate as temporary. This paper assesses the quantitative relevance of the ‘temporariness’ hypothesis by comparing the predictions of a simple model to the actual figures for seven major programs. The paper concludes that nominal interest rates must fall substantially for the ‘temporariness’ hypothesis to account for an important fraction of the observed consumption booms.   9.    A new database on human capital stock in developing and industrial countries: Sources, methodology, and results Pages 379-401 Vikram Nehru, Eric Swanson and Ashutosh Dubey    The paper describes the techniques and data adopted for the construction of a new series of estimates of the stock of education in 85 countries over 28 years (1960–1987). The series are built from enrollment data using the perpetual inventory method, adjusted for mortality. Estimates are corrected for grade repetition among school-goers and country-specific drop-out rates for primary and secondary students. Enrollment data series used start as far back as 1930 for most countries, and even earlier for others. This reduces the need for backward extrapolation of enrollments to provide the initial estimates of the investment inventory.   10.    The optimal revenue tariff for public input provision: A further result on Feehan Pages 403-407 Ming Chung Chang    Feehan (1992) established some rules for public input provision in a model where the tariff revenue is utilized to fund public inputs. According to these rules Feehan discussed whether the public input would be produced at a larger amount than the level that maximizes the national income. This note sharpens the result of Feehan by using information regarding Lagrangian multipliers.   11.    Announcement Page 409    12.    Author index Pages 411-412

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农民协会

藤椅

eqzhri 发表于 2007-9-24 08:51:00

Volume 47, Issue 1, Pages 1-178 (June 1995)

Volume 47, Issue 1, Pages 1-178 (June 1995)

157364.rar (6.68 MB, 需要: 30 个论坛币) 1.    Introduction Pages 1-3 Sebastian Edwards and Edmar L. Bacha    2.    Growth and convergence in Colombia: 1950–1990 Pages 5-37 Mauricio Cárdenas and Adriana Pontón    This paper extends the empirical new growth literature to the analysis of cross-departmental data from a developing country. The paper tests whether there has been any convergence in the per-capita income across regions in Colombia and discusses the role of labor migration in that context. The paper also tries to identify those factors that explain growth differentials across regions in the postwar period. The results suggest that Colombia is a very successful story of regional convergence. In fact, the rate of convergence is close to 4% per year. However, labor migrations do not seem to play an important role in the process of convergence. In addition, the paper argues that departments that invest more in education grow faster, regardless of their initial position. The results also support the need for heavy expenditures in national security. Other structural characteristics, such as the sectorial composition of output and trade orientation, do not seem to play a key role in explaining growth differentials.   3.    Credibility of trade policy reform and investment: the Mexican experience Pages 39-60 Luis Alberto Ibarra    This paper assesses whether the program of trade liberalization undertaken by Mexico after 1985 was undermined by lack of credibility. It provides an empirical counterpart to some of the credibility issues that have been discussed elsewhere in the literature and proposes a methodology, based on the estimation of a probit model, to measure the probability of trade policy reversal due to the likelihood of occurrence of a balance of payments crisis. It is shown that the probability of trade policy reversal reduced indeed the rate of capital accumulation during the first years of the reform.   4.    Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural Pages 61-95 Jeffrey Frankel, Ernesto Stein and Shang-jin Wei    Is world trade becoming more regionalized, as a result of preferential arrangements such as NAFTA, the Andean Pact and MERCOSUR? If so, is this deviation from the principle of MFN (non-discriminatory trade policies) good or bad? This paper attempts to answer both questions. Using the gravity model to examine bilateral trade patterns throughout the world, we find evidence of trading blocs in the Western Hemisphere and elsewhere, as in earlier work. Intra-regional trade is greater than could be explained by natural determinants: the proximity of a pair of countries, their sizes and GNP/capitas, and whether they share a common border or a common language. Within the Western Hemisphere, MERCOSUR and the Andean Pact countries appear to function as significantly independent trading areas, but NAFTA much less so (as of 1990). The intra-regional trade bias within MERCOSUR increased the most rapidly during the 1980s. In East Asia, on the other hand, increased intra-regional trade can be explained entirely by the rapid growth of the economies. We then turn from the econometrics to an analysis of economic welfare. Krugman has supplied an argument against a world of three trading blocs (that they would be protectionist), in a model that assumes no transport costs. He has supplied another argument in favor of trading blocs, provided the blocs are drawn along ‘natural’ geographic lines, in a model that assumes prohibitively high transportation costs between continents. In this paper we attempt to resolve the Krugman vs. Krugman debate. We complete the model of the welfare implications of trading blocs for the realistic case where inter-continental transport costs are neither so high as to be prohibitive nor zero. We consider three applications of the model. 1. Continental Free Trade Areas (FTAs). We show that it is not only Krugman's ‘unnatural’ FTAs that can leave everyone worse off than under MFN, but that under conditions of relatively low inter-continental transport costs, FTAs that are formed along natural continental lines can do so as well. We call such welfare-reducing blocs super-natural. 2. Partial regionalization. We find that partial liberalization within a regional Preferential Trading Arrangement (PTA) is better than 100 percent liberalization. In the super-natural zone the regional trading arrangement, in contrast to the Article 24 provision of the GATT, reduces welfare. It occurs for combinations of low inter-continental transport costs and high intra-bloc preferences, i.e., when the regionalization of trade policy exceeds what is justified by natural factors. 3. The formation of several sub-regional PTAs on each continent. We find that multiple FTAs on each continent could lower welfare, but that multiple PTAs, with partial internal liberalization, would raise welfare. We conclude the paper with an attempt to extract estimates of transportation costs from the statistics. Estimates suggest that trading blocs on the order of the EC are in fact super-natural.    5.    Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence Pages 97-133 Guillermo A. Calvo, Carmen M. Reinhart and Carlos A. Végh    This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the model's prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation.   6.    Inflationary bias and state-owned financial institutions Pages 135-154 Walter Novaes and Sergio Werlang    This article explains why the existence of state-owned financial institutions makes it more difficult for a country to balance its budget. We show that states can use their financial institutions to transfer their deficits to the federal government. As a result, there is a bias towards large deficits and high inflation rates. Our model also predicts that state-owned financial institutions should underperform the market, mainly because they concentrate their portfolios on non-performing loans to their own shareholders, that is, the states. Brazil and Argentina are two countries with a history of high inflation that confirm our predictions.   7.    Mexico after the debt crisis: is growth sustainable? Pages 155-178 Daniel Oks and Sweder van Wijnbergen    This paper argues that, in the case of Mexico's debt and debt service reduction agreed with London Club creditors, the ‘smoothening’ of the external transfer had a much stronger domestic impact than the reduction of debt/debt service per se. The financing of the expansion that ensued following the debt deal was facilitated by strong foreign capital inflows. However, along with the capital inflow, there was a sharp decline in private saving which raised concerns about the sustainability of the recovery. The paper argues that, even if domestic saving increases from the low level reached in 1992, the transition to a sustainable growth path is unlikely to be smooth, as the slowdown in consumption growth is likely to be contractionary. The net outcome will depend on how investment and net exports respond. The analysis of cyclical and structural factors of investment and net exports leads to a cautious optimism over the medium term.

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农民协会

板凳

eqzhri 发表于 2007-9-24 08:55:00

Volume 47, Issue 2, Pages 179-504 (August 1995)

Volume 47, Issue 2, Pages 179-504 (August 1995)

157365.rar (15.04 MB) 　 1.   Fairness concepts and the intrahousehold allocation of resources Pages 179-189 Amy Farmer and Jill Tiefenthaler    How do parents allocate scarce resources among their children? While much research has focused on investment strategies, parents' preferences for equity may also play a role in the household allocation of resources. While the studies that incorporate equity define it in limited terms, in this paper, several fairness concepts are applied to the problem of intrahousehold distribution. Comparing food allocations and health outcomes across fairness concepts indicates that each concept results in a different allocation of food and a different health outcome. The implications of this result for empirical studies of intrahousehold distribution and policy interventions are discussed.    2.   Power, coercion, and the games landlords play Pages 191-205 Nadeem Naqvi and Frederick Wemhöner    If an agent introduces triadic relationships through a threat, when relations are dyadic without this threat, and if by such a threat this agent reduces the welfare of others, then this agent may be said to exercise power. We construct a minimal model with three agents (landlord, laborer, and merchant) and three commodities, and demonstrate that in the subgame perfect equilibrium of a finite-move, extensive-form game of complete and perfect information there is no powerful individual. We show next that in the infinitely repeated game, there exists a subgame perfect equilibrium in which the landlord wields power.    3.   Labor tying Pages 207-239 Anindita Mukherjee and Debraj Ray    We study labor-tying in a competitive agricultural economy. The co-existence of seasonal fluctuations in income and imperfect credit markets suggests that tied contracts should dominate casual labor markets. However, empirical observation from India suggests that this is far from being the case, and indeed, that there is a declining trend in labor tying. We consider a model that permits deviations ex-post from mutually agreed implicit contracts. In equilibrium, casual labor markets are always active despite the presence of seasonality, and a variety of implications are derived that link economic growth, changing information flows, and the decline of labor tying over time.    4.   Attached farm labor, limited horizons and servility Pages 241-270 Julie Anderson Schaffner    Two facets of attached farm labor arrangements — the ‘servility’ often required of attached laborers, and employers' interest in maintaining such workers' ‘limited horizons’ — are described and incorporated into an otherwise standard model of attached and temporary agricultural employment, substantially modifying the model's predictions. The dependence of workers' preferences on reference group behavior (which underlies employers' interest in limiting horizons) may enable employers to drive even freely mobile workers' wellbeing below competitive levels, may imply that abolishing servility arrangements would benefit all workers, gives rise to multiple equilibria in community layout and culture, and sheds light on some characteristics of agrarian revolts.    5.   Political coalition breaking and sustainability of policy reform Pages 271-286 John K. Horowitz and Richard E. Just    This paper examines the need and potential for coalition breaking in policy reform efforts related to agriculture and the environment. The objective is to consider traditional policy tools that can break existing political coalitions, given the powerful noncompetitive role of strong interest groups such as government bureaucracy and large trading organizations. Choice of the policy mix is modeled as a cooperative game. A modification of the Nash bargaining solution is used to endogenize coalition formation. This framework is then used to examine the potential for an external development agency to promote environmental interests in the policy formation process. The results explain how in some countries a small increase in strategic aid may achieve a major breakthrough in policy reform even if past activities have been unproductive and how, in other countries, a major increase in aid may be fruitless.    6.   Strategic tariffs and endogenous market structures: Trade and industrial policies under imperfect competition Pages 287-312 Aditya Bhattacharjea    This paper examines strategic tariff policy, tariff-induced entry, and endogenous market structures in a developing-country setting. It improves on recent theoretical treatments of optimal trade policy under imperfect competition, by allowing for forward-looking import-substituting investment induced by an anticipated, time-consistent tariff policy. It shows that the optimum tariff is robust across a subset of market structures and cost and demand specifications. However, it will usually involve insufficient or excessive entry by domestic firms, and consequently industrial policy of various kinds is a necessary supplement to strategic tariff policy.    7.   Productivity and the export market: A firm-level analysis Pages 313-332 B. -Y. Aw and A. R. Hwang    An empirical model is developed to distinguish the roles of resource-level differences from productivity differences in explaining output differences between exporters and non-exporters of Taiwanese electronic products. Our results indicate that the larger size of exporters relative to non-exporters explains the bulk of the difference in output between the two groups of producers. Nevertheless, there are significant differences in productivity levels between exporters and non-exporters in three out of the four products examined. The contribution of these differences to output differences between the two groups of producers vary from 3 to 20%, depending on the electronic product and model specification.    8.   Transfers, returns to scale, tied aid and monopolistic competition Pages 333-354 Steven Brakman and Charles van Marrewijk       9.   Barriers to portfolio investments in emerging stock markets Pages 355-374 Ash Demirgüç-Kunt and Harry Huizinga       10.   Structural change and poverty in Africa: A decomposition anakysis for Côte d'Ivoire Pages 375-401 Christiaan Grootaert       11.   More evidence on income distribution and growth Pages 403-427 George R. G. Clarke       12.   Do Koreans save optimally? Pages 429-442 Jinsoo Hahn       13.   The political economy of price ceilings for necessities Pages 443-454 Harry Huizinga       14.   Foreign aid and public goods Pages 455-467 Panos Hatzipanayotou and Michael S. Michael       15.   Tax on foreign capital income and wage subsidy to the urban sector in the Harris-Todaro model Pages 469-479 Manash Ranjan Gupta    We consider endogenous foreign capital inflow in the different versions of Harris-Todaro model. Wage subsidies are financed by taxing the foreign-capital income which is otherwise repatriated. Their effects on unemployment and national income are analysed.    16.   Organized debt buybacks: No cure for free riding? Pages 481-496 Jacek Prokop       17.   Employment and development: A new review of evidence : David Turnham, (OECD, Paris, 1993) Pages 497-502 Gary S. Fields    18.   The economics of rural organization: Theory, practice and policy : Karla Hoff, Avishay Braverman, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, eds., (Oxford University Press, New York, 1993) Pages 502-504 Lee J. Alsto

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农民协会

报纸

eqzhri 发表于 2007-9-24 09:10:00

Volume 48, Issue 1, Pages 1-223 (October 1995)

157367.rar (9.28 MB, 需要: 30 个论坛币) Volume 48, Issue 1, Pages 1-223 (October 1995)1.    Editorial Board Pages ii-iii    2.    R & D spillover and productivity growth: Evidence from Indian private firms Pages 1-23 Lakshmi K. Raut    We test the R & D spillover hypothesis of the endogenous growth literature using panel data for a sample of private manufacturing firms in India over the period 1975–1986. We estimate an extended production function that includes the firm's own R & D capital stock and the spillover effect of the industry-wide R & D capital stock as inputs, as well as physical capital and labor hours. We specify models which eliminate three sources of estimation bias and flawed hypothesis tests: serially correlated errors, unobserved heterogeneity due to omitted factors of production, and endogenous determination of value-added and input levels. Several specification tests are used to select a well-behaved model. The final parameter estimates show evidence for the R & D spillover hypothesis in all industries.   3.    Measuring persistence in industrial output: The Indian case Pages 25-41 R. Krishnan and Kunal Sen    Monthly data on the index of industrial production (IIP) in India, is analysed to check for the long-run effect or persistence of an ‘innovation’ or a ‘shock’ on the level of the series. Using (i) an exact maximum likelihood estimation method and constructing the likelihood function through Kalman filtering recursions and (ii) Cochrane's variance ratio technique, we find little long-term persistence in IIP. Our results imply a one percent change now should not affect much the level of IIP over a long horizon.   4.    The impact of financial integration and unilateral public transfers on investment and growth in EC capital-importing countries Pages 43-66 Vitor Gaspar and Alfredo M. Pereira    This paper develops an endogenous growth model of private, public, and human capital accumulation, in which the public and the current account balances play a crucial role, with the purpose of studying the impact of financial integration and unilateral public transfers on the intertemporal paths of EC capital-importing economies. While both financial integration and unilateral public transfers generate a wealth effect, they affect different types of investment activities, and have different effects on foreign borrowing. The theoretical model is applied to Portugal. Numerical simulation suggest that these structural changes have a substantial impact on growth and on the convergence of Portuguese GDP per capita to EC standards. The structural changes, however, affect negatively the domestic policy options in face of the requirements of the Economic and Monetary Union in the EC.   5.    Trade reform, uncertainty, and export promotion: Mexico 1982-88 Pages 67-89 William F. Maloney and Rodrigo R. Azevedo    This paper uses a simple portfolio optimization framework to analyze both the direct impact of liberalization measures and the impact of reduced relative riskiness of exporting vs producing for the domestic market arising from a commitment to an outward orientation. We allow for uncertainty in both the domestic and foreign markets and examine the very counterintuitive implications of the covariance for export behavior. We use firm level export data in a dynamic panel context, Bi-variate GARCH techniques, and the Levin and Lin tests for unit root stationarity in panel data to examine the Mexican liberalization from 1983-88.   6.    Capital goods imports and long-run growth Pages 91-110 Jong-Wha Lee    This paper presents an endogenous growth model of an open economy in which the growth rate of income is higher if foreign capital goods are used relatively more than domestic capital goods for the production of capital stock. Empirical results, using cross country data for the period 1960–1985, confirm that the ratio of imported to domestically produced capital goods in the composition of investment has a significant positive effect on per capita income growth rates across countries, in particular, in developing countries. Hence, the composition of investment in addition to the volume of total capital accumulation is highlighted as an important determinant of economic growth.   7.    The Turkish export boom: Just reward or just lucky? Pages 111-133 Robin Barlow and Fikret enses    After adopting outward-oriented policies like exchange rate depreciation, export subsidies, and import liberalization, Turkey experienced an export boom in the 1980s and beyond. This paper attempts to measure the extent to which the boom was due to the policies undertaken, and the extent to which it was due to external circumstances such as the Iran-Iraq war, changes in consumer incomes in Turkey's markets in Europe and the Middle East, and rainfall fluctuations, Regression analyses with annual data for 1966–1991 suggest that the boom was indeed mostly the result of policy, with rising incomes in Europe after 1985 being the strongest of the external influences on export growth.   8.    Debt relief, growth and price stability in Mexico Pages 135-149 Beatriz Armendáriz de Aghion and Patricia Armendáriz de Hinestrosa    Inspired by the negotiation of the foreign debt of Mexico in 1989 this paper provides a framework to show that, prior to debt relief, an LDC government which is indebted both domestically and externally has an additional incentive not to default on its external obligations. However, repayment of the external debt is shown to involve a delicate tradeoff between growth and inflation: on the one hand the government increases its ability to keep domestic interest rates relatively low thereby promoting investment and growth; on the other hand the government worsens the budget-deficit problem thereby introducing additional inflationary pressures. The way to improve this tradeoff is by negotiating a debt relief operation on the foreign debt.   9.    Optimal sequencing of credible reforms with uncertain outcomes Pages 151-166 John P. Conley and William F. Maloney    We study a two-period representative agent economy in which economic liberalization is modeled as adding a positive random variable to the marginal product of capital. We show liberalization always raises the expected utility of agents. Agents may respond to this by increasing consumption in the first period. Consequently, consumption in the second period is sometimes smaller than the in the first depending on the realization of the random variable. This ‘tail’ may cause the government to reject liberalization of declining GDP enters negatively in the government's objectives. We apply these results to the Chilean experience of the 1980s.   10.    Exchange rate regime reforms with black market leakages Pages 167-187 Linda S. Goldberg    Many countries have multiple exchange rate regimes, with black or secondary currency markets operating alongside an exchange rate pegged or determined in interbank or auction markets. Leakages occur across these markets, necessitating careful analysis of the dynamic effects of numerous policy instruments. Using a model with multiple exchange rates and leakages, we trace the dynamic effects on official and parallel foreign exchange markets of exchange rate unification, changes in foreign exchange surrender requirements, taxes on trade and capital account transactions, and official exchange rate devaluation. Simulations based on Russia's recent experience demonstrate the qualitative importance of the results.   11.    Rebates as a mechanism to induce the entry of commercial banks into new markets Pages 189-204 Pablo Cotler    For several reasons, governments may want to encourage commercial banks to offer credit to some specific groups. This paper analyzes a contract scheme that may help achieve this objective without inducing financial disintermediation or other adverse behavior. Two sources of information asymmetry are considered: between the government and the bank (credit might be diverted to borrowers not belonging to the targeted group); and between the bank and the borrower (the latter may divert credit to purposes other than stated). Compared to other policies, the scheme analyzed here is superior since it brings about lower interest rates and higher cooperation from banks to achieve the government's objective.   12.    Wage subsidy and full-employment in a dual economy with open unemployment and surplus labor Pages 205-223 A. Wahhab Khandker and Salim Rashid    This paper deals with an alternative version of a model with open unemployment and surplus labor. When agricultural workers are individual utility maximizers getting average product as wages, a manufacturing wage subsidy may reduce surplus labor while increasing open unemployment; a typical characteristic of lots of developing countries. This paper shows that no subsidy other than an optimum manufacturing wage subsidy can lead the economy toward full-employment.

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农民协会

地板

eqzhri 发表于 2007-9-24 09:16:00

Volume 48, Issue 2, Pages 225-480 (March 1996)

157368.rar (10.88 MB, 需要: 30 个论坛币) Volume 48, Issue 2, Pages 225-480 (March 1996) 1  What explains the trend reversal in the size distribution of Korean manufacturing establishments? Pages 225-251 Jeffrey B. Nugent    Although Korea is known for a size distribution of manufacturing firms and establishments increasingly skewed toward large size, this paper shows that there has been a significant reversal in that trend since the mid-1970s. Various explanations of the original trend and its reversal, including technology, government policy, and transaction costs, are examined with pooled cross-section and time series data for manufacturing establishments between 1963 and 1988. The results show that two general types of factors stand out in explaining both the original trend and its subsequent reversal, namely, the changing characteristics of both domestic financial markets and international marketing.   2.    Growth of micro and small enterprises in southern Africa Pages 253-277 Michael A. McPherson    As policy-makers and members of the donor community have recognized the importance of micro and small enterprises in developing countries, the paucity of information regarding the ways in which MSEs grow and change over time has become glaring. This study examines one issue of small-firm dynamics, namely growth, using new data collected in five southern African countries. The level of human capital embodied in the proprietor, firm location, sector, and proprietor gender are found to be important determinants of growth. The results also indicate an inverse relationship between firm growth and both firm age and firm size.   3.    A multiplier decomposition method to analyze poverty alleviation Pages 279-300 Erik Thorbecke and Hong-Sang Jung    The objective of this paper is to present a multiplier decomposition method focusing on poverty alleviation. The decomposition captures the various mechanisms and linkages through which a production sector's output contributes to poverty alleviation within a socioeconomic system represented by a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). It is shown that a multiplier can be broken down into two multiplicative effects, the distributional and interdependency effects. The decomposition method is applied to the case of Indonesia. A key policy implication is that the human capital of the poor needs to be enhanced if they are not to be sealed off from the industrialization process.   4.    The dynamic behavior of quota license prices Pages 301-321 Kala Krishna and Ling Hui Tan    In a static perfectly competitive model, it is well understood that a quota license has a scarcity value. In a dynamic setting with uncertainty, the license price has two additional components, both of which arise from the fact that the license is valid for an entire year. They are the asset market component and the option value component. In this paper, we construct a model of the quota license market in which the license demand and supply functions incorporate these various components, and estimate it using monthly data on apparel quota licenses from Hong Kong.   5.    The role of intellectual property rights in economic growth Pages 323-350 David M. Gould and William C. Gruben    By influencing the incentives to innovate, intellectual property rights protection may affect economic growth in important ways. An important question for many countries is whether stricter enforcement of intellectual property is a good strategy for economic growth. This paper examines the role of intellectual property rights in economic growth, utilizing cross-country data on patent protection, trade regime, and country-specific characteristics. The evidence suggests that intellectual property protection is a significant determinant of economic growth. These effects appear to be slightly stronger in relatively open economies and are robust to both the measure of openness used and to other alternative model specifications.    6.    Credit market imperfections and economic development: Theory and evidence Pages 351-387 Chien-Hui Ma and Bruce D. Smith    A model of credit markets in which there is a costly-state-verification problem is integrated into a neoclassical growth model. The presence of a credit market friction gives rise to credit rationing, which in turn impacts on the growth path of an economy. The model delivers predictions about the co-movements between per capita income, credit rationing, interest rates, and factor prices. The implications of the model are generally empirically supported in U.S. and Taiwanese data. The model also makes predictions about the consequences of government regulation of credit markets which are supported by the Taiwanese data.   7.    The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull? Pages 389-418 Eduardo Fernandez-Arias    This paper studies the determinants and sustainability of the widespread private capital inflows to middle-income countries after 1989. The key question is whether these flows are mostly ‘pulled’ by attractive domestic conditions or ‘pushed’ by unfavorable conditions in developed countries. An analytical model focusing on country risk is developed and used empirically. It is argued that the observed improvement in country creditworthiness is mostly due to the decline in international interest rates, and that therefore its importance as a proximate cause does not support the ‘pull’ interpretation. All things considered, in most countries the key answer that emerges is ‘push’.   8.    Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries Pages 419-447 Ann Harrison    This paper draws together a variety of openness measures to test the association between openness and growth. Although the correlation across different types of openness is not always strong, there is generally a positive association between growth and different measures of openness. The strength of the association depends on whether the specification uses cross-section or panel data (which combines cross-section and time series). For industrializing countries, which have exhibited significant fluctuations in trade regimes over time, long-run averages may not serve as very meaningful indicators of policy.   9.    International evidence on the effects of directed credit programmes on efficiency of resource allocation in developing countries: The case of development bank lendings Pages 449-460 M. O. Odedokun    The study investigates the effects of development banking activities on resource allocation in LDCs by employing annual panel data for 38 LDCs and over various periods between 1960 and 1989. The investigation is conducted within the framework of regression equations. Efficiency of investment utilization or resource allocation is measured by the reciprocal of the incremental capital-output ratio, while the scale of loans development banking is measured by the stock of development bank to the private sector in relation to GDP. Our findings suggest that the scale of development banking generally has negative effects on the efficiency of investment utilization, as do the inflation rate and the size of the public sector.   10.    Macroeconomic stability, investment and growth in developing countries Pages 461-477 Michael F. Bleaney    It is widely hypothesised that sound macroeconomic policies promote growth by providing a more secure environment for private sector investment decisions. This proposition is tested for a cross-section of developing countries over the period 1980–1990 using a variety of measures of the quality of macroeconomic management. The evidence suggests that good macroeconomic management is associated with faster growth for a given rate of investment. It is less clear that the volume of investment is significantly affected. There is little evidence of non-linearities. The results are robust to an extension of the data period back to 1972.   11.    Author index Pages 479-480

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农民协会

7楼

eqzhri 发表于 2007-9-24 09:34:00

Volume 49, Issue 1, Pages 1-270 (April 1996)

157370.rar (11.84 MB, 需要: 30 个论坛币) Volume 49, Issue 1, Pages 1-270 (April 1996)1.    Editorial Board Pages ii-iii    2.    Introduction Pages 1-2 Pranab Bardhan    3.    The division of labor and economic development Pages 3-32 Andrés Rodríguez-Clare    Building on three widely accepted premises (productivity gains from the division of labor, efficiency gains derived from the proximity of suppliers and users of certain inputs, the division of labor is limited by the extent of the market) this paper shows that a small, open economy may be caught in an underdevelopment trap in which a shallow division of labor (i.e., a low variety of specialized inputs) is self-reinforcing. In turn, the shallow division of labor leads to a relatively low rate of return to capital, so foreign investment or domestic capital accumulation may not materialize.   4.    Start-up costs and pecuniary externalities as barriers to economic development Pages 33-59 Antonio Ciccone and Kiminori Matsuyama    We use a dynamic monopolistic competition model to show that an economy that inherits a small range of specialized inputs can be trapped into a lower stage of development. The limited availability of specialized inputs forces the final goods producers to use a labor intensive technology, which in turn implies a small inducement to introduce new intermediate inputs. The start-up costs, which make the intermediate inputs producers subject to dynamic increasing returns, and pecuniary externalities that result from the factor substitution in the final goods sector, play essential roles in the model.   5.    Local demand, investment multipliers, and industrialization: Theory and application to the Guatemalan highlands Pages 61-92 Marcel Fafchamps and Brigit Helms    This paper investigates the role of demand in rural industrialization. We show that, when increasing returns are present, investment multipliers and multiple equilibria can result from demand for intermediate inputs and non-homothetic preferences. We then examine smallscale industrialization in the Guatemalan highlands. We find large differences in the extent and variety of non-farm production across municipalities and evidence of large entry and transportation costs. But the pattern of non-farm production does not fully conform to investment multipliers. We conclude that urbanization favors the emergence of specialized firms and that the export of non-farm products is important for industrialization.   6.    The role of ports in the making of major cities: Self-agglomeration and hub-effect Pages 93-120 Masahisa Fujita and Tomoya Mori    This paper proposes an evolutionary model of spatial economic development in which agglomeration economies and the hub-effect of transport nodes interplay in the making of major cities. The model explains the irreversibility of spatial economic development such as the continuing prosperity of port cities even after their initial advantage of water-access had become irrelevant. It is also shown that in order to decentralize industries from the core region to a periphery region, a temporary protection of industries in the periphery by worsening the transport connection with the core for a short period of time may be desirable.   7.    Increasing returns, migrations and convergence Pages 121-136 Riccardo Faini    The paper investigates the link between convergence and factor mobility. It contrasts the predictions of exogenous growth models (where factor mobility is found to promote convergence) with endogenous growth models (where factor mobility invariably leads to a cumulative process of regional divergence). The paper develops a simple model of regional growth with mobile factors, increasing returns to scale and diminishing returns to the reproducible factor. It also tries to provide more solid microfoundations to the specification of the migration choice. Because of diminishing returns to the reproducible factor, the economy will not be able to generate endogenous self-sustaining growth. Nevertheless, the results suggest that, even in the context of an exogenous growth model, convergence is not warranted. However, convergence may occur, for some particular constellations, despite the presence of increasing returns to scale. More precisely, it is shown that convergence is more likely the greater is the scope for scale economies and (somewhat paradoxically) the lower is the degree of labor mobility.   8.    Trade policy and the Third World metropolis Pages 137-150 Paul Krugman and Raul Livas Elizondo    Many of the world's largest cities are now in developing countries. We develop a simple theoretical model, inspired by the case of Mexico, that explains the existence of such giant cities as a consequence of the strong forward and backward linkages that arise when manufacturing tries to serve a small domestic market. The model implies that these linkages are much weaker when the economy is open to international trade; in other words, the giant Third World metropolis is an unintended by-product of import-substitution policies, and will tend to shrink as developing countries liberalize.   9.    Innovation, monopolies and the poverty trap Pages 151-178 Jean-Marie Baland and Patrick Francois    This paper considers an avenue by which the structure of industries in an economy can affect the development of new technologies through its general equilibrium impact on profits relative to wages. We show that a monopolistic structure in one industry, by increasing the share of profits in aggregate income, tends to increase the relative profitability of innovative activities elsewhere thereby leading to the creation of further monopoly rents which, in turn, feeds back into incentives for innovation thus causing a self-perpetuating cycle. This leads to the possibility of an economy exhibiting multiple steady states including a ‘poverty trap’ or situation of zero growth. We analyze the conditions under which multiple steady states exist and characterize the economy's behaviour out of the steady state. The role of government intervention, in the form of subsidies and direct provision of research is also examined.   10.    Trade policy, cumulative causation, and industrial development Pages 179-197 Anthony J. Venables    This paper considers the effects of trade policy in industries which are imperfectly competitive, and in which there is an input-output structure, creating vertical linkages between firms. Two models are presented, one based on Cournot oligopoly and the other on Dixit-Stiglitz product differentiation. In both models it may be the case that trade liberalisation triggers a dramatic expansion of output and possibly also a reduction in imports. This arises as import liberalisation lowers costs in downstream industries, expanding their output, and triggering a ‘big push’ of industrialisation.   11.    Absorptive capacity: On the creation and acquisition of technology in development Pages 199-227 Wolfgang Keller    Recent studies on technological transformation in developing countries emphasize that successful industrialization requires both technological information and a good understanding of its implementation. In an open economy context it is shown that the sustained gains in growth derived from a move towards an open trade regime evaporate as soon as one gives up the arguably inadequate notion of ‘technology’ as being all-inclusive. In this paper, technology is only implementable as the labor force has built up the corresponding skills. Trade liberalization disseminates new technologies and goods to the domestic economy, and has beneficial effects on the level of final output and consumption. But sustained growth gains are only forthcoming if in addition to the arrival of new technologies also skills are accumulated at a higher rate than before the regime change. I argue that this explains part of the variation in the long-run growth effects of trade liberalization in newly industrializing countries.   12.    Trade and uneven growth Pages 229-256 Robert C. Feenstra    In many endogenous growth models, trade leads to the convergence of growth rates across countries. What has not been adequately recognized is that this result depends on one crucial assumption: that trade occurs simultaneously with the international diffusion of knowledge. If instead we drop this assumption, and consider the case where no diffusion of knowledge occurs, then we find that trade in goods can lead to a divergence of growth rates. We also explore how these results are affected by trade in intermediate inputs or by multinational corporations, which may facilitate the diffusion of knowledge.   13.    Disparity in wages but not in returns to capital between rich and poor countries Pages 257-270 Pranab Bardhan    One of the striking features of the international economy is that while the level of average wage rates in rich countries is many times that in pour countries, their average rates of return to capital seem to be roughly similar or the differences in them relatively very small. This cannot be fully explained away by the fact that capital is internationally much more mobile than labor. There is remarkably little movement of return-sensitive private capital between the richest and the poorest countries. In this paper we assume instead that factors of production are internationally immobile, and try to explain the observed asymmetry in the pattern of factor prices in terms of particular types of differences in production functions between rich and poor countries, in terms of differential learning effects and differential degrees of specialization in the sector producing intermediate inputs and services.

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农民协会

8楼

eqzhri 发表于 2007-9-24 09:48:00

Volume 49, Issue 2, Pages 271-411 (May 1996)

157371.rar (6.76 MB, 需要: 30 个论坛币) Volume 49, Issue 2, Pages 271-411 (May 1996)1.    Economic development in a world with many countries Pages 271-288 Noriyuki Yanagawa    This paper examines economic development and growth within a model of a continuum of countries. We can show the industrialization process of less developed countries endogenously. The necessary conditions for industrialization depend on the relative position of the country in the world economy. Hence, not only the domestic conditions, but also the performances of other countries are important for industrialization. By using this result, we also consider the relation between agricultural productivity and industrialization. This relation is dependent on the situation of the world economy. If an agricultural country has high industrial productivity, high agricultural productivity may enhance industrialization, but this relation may become inverse by changing the performance of other less developed countries. Furthermore, we examine the effects of less productive industrialized countries. Those countries deter industrialization of less developed countries and development of other industrialized countries. This result is important to consider the infant industry protection policy.   2.    Syndicated lending under asymmetric creditor information Pages 289-306 Saugata Banerjee and Olivier Cadot    This paper explores how asymmetric information about borrower quality among syndicated lenders alters the incentive to refinance illiquid borrowers. We use a model in which lenders enter the market sequentially in two rounds of lending. Between the two rounds, a shock separates borrowers into good ones and bad ones, and early entrants acquire information about individual borrower type, while late entrants know only the distribution of borrower types. The asymmetric information structure gives rise to both signalling and screening issues. We show that self-selecting contracts do not exist, and that there is always a pooling Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium in which late entrants lend to both good and bad types, without borrower type being exposed before final clearing at the terminal time. Based on this framework, we argue that prior to the 1982 international debt crisis, it was possible for banks with heavy exposure to troubled debtors to attract rational newcomers in syndicated loans which were, with positive probability, bailout loans.   3.    Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done? Pages 307-335 Lant Pritchett    In recent years abundant evidence has been put forth to show that something about a country's trade policy stance improves economic performance. However, less examined is the question of what exactly that trade policy something that matters for performance is. Examination of the link between various empirical indicators used in the literature to measure trade policy stance reveals that, with minor exceptions, they are pairwise uncorrelated. This finding raises obvious questions about the their reliability in capturing some common aspect of trade policy and the interpretation of the empirical evidence on economic performance.   4.    Technological change: Rediscovering the engine of productivity growth in China's rural economy Pages 337-369 Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle    This paper focuses on measuring the relative importance of the role of technology versus that of institutional innovation in China's rural economy. A six-equation rice sector model explaining provincial-level technology adoption, yield, and factor demand are econometrically estimated using data from China's 13 rice growing provinces for the period 1975–1990. Growth decomposition analysis identifies technology adoption as the most important determinant of rice yield growth during 1978–1984, accounting for nearly 40 percent the change; institutional reform accounted for 35 percent of the growth. In 1985–1990, technology accounts for all of the increase in rice yields. The study demonstrates earlier studies may have over-estimated the impact of decollectivization.   5.    Agrarian efficiency wages in a dual economy Pages 371-386 Gautam Bose    Suppose that the long-term efficiency of agricultural workers is sensitive to current wages via consumption. Also assume that urban wages are higher, migration is costly, and agricultural workers do not have access to credit. Then changes in components of the urban wage structure effect components of the rural wage distribution in a selective and perverse fashion. Intuitively, a higher rural wage facilitates saving and thus makes it easier for workers to migrate to the urban sector. But this deprives the rural employer of long-term efficiency gains which motivates the higher wage payment. Thus when urban wages increase and migration becomes correspondingly more attractive, rural employers reduce their wage offers. This intuition is generalised by considering diverse worker types and various initial wage distributions.    6.    From adjustment to development in Africa: Conflict, controversy, convergence, consensus? : Giovanni A. Cornia and Gerald Helleiner, eds., (St. Martins Press, New York and MacMillan, London, 1994), pp. xxiv + 417 Pages 387-391 Paul Collier    7.    The financial development of Japan, Korea and Taiwan: Growth. Repressions and Liberalization : Hugh T. Patrick and Yung Chul Park, (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1994), pp. xii + 384 Pages 392-394 Peter J. Montiel    8.    Population, economic development and the environment : K. Lindahl-Kiessling and Hans Landberg, ed., (Oxford University Press, New York, 1994), pp. xxii + 284, $29.95 Pages 394-399 Andrew D. Foster    9.    Micro-Enterprises and the institutional framework in developing countries : Christian Morrisson, Henri-Bernard Solignac Lecomte and Xavier Oudin, (OECD Development Centre, Paris, 1994), pp. 251, $30, 55DM or 140FF Pages 399-403 Jeffrey B. Nugent    10.    Local suppliers of credit in the Third World, 1750–1960 : Gareth Austin and Kaoru Sugihara, eds., (The Macmillan Press, London and St. Martin's Press, New York, 1993), ISBN 0-333-52320-2 (The Macmillan Press), ISBN 0-312-08559-1 (St. Martin's Press), pp. 318, $65.00 Pages 403-407 Karla Hoff    11.    Economies of exclusion: Underclass poverty and labor market change in Mexico : Scott Sernau, (Praeger Publishers, Westport, CT, 1994), pp. xv + 156, $55.00 Pages 407-410 Douglas Marcouiller    12.    Author index Page 411

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农民协会

9楼

eqzhri 发表于 2007-9-24 09:57:00

Volume 50, Issue 1, Pages 1-212 (June 1996)

157372.rar (8.36 MB, 需要: 30 个论坛币) Volume 50, Issue 1, Pages 1-212 (June 1996)1.    Editorial Board Pages ii-iii    2.    Publisher's note Page v    3.    The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s Pages 1-24 Graciela L. Kaminsky and Alfredo Pereira    One of the salient characteristics of the 1980s is the growth collapse of the Latin American debtor countries. The debt-overhang literature claims that the debt crisis is the main reason for the growth collapse. However, previous empirical work has failed to support this hypothesis. We re-examined this hypothesis further using simulation and econometric methods. We found that once we account for the effects of social inequality on government policy and consumption, the burden of servicing the debt becomes an important factor in explaining the collapse in investment and output growth in Latin America. We draw some conclusions for the 1990s.   4.    A framework for the analysis of financial reforms and the cost of official safety nets Pages 25-79 Peter Isard, Donald J. Mathieson and Liliana Rojas-Suárez    The paper builds a multiperiod, general equilibrium framework for analyzing the macroeconomic effects of financial reforms in developing countries and the costs of maintaining official safety nets. When the creditworthiness of the non-financial sector is weak, the efficiency gains from financial liberalization may be countered by an increase in expected deposit insurance funding obligations, even when prudential supervision is strong. Moreover, given the distortions in a repressed financial system, attempts to reduce risk exposures by increasing bank capital/asset ratios may increase the funding obligations associated with deposit insurance, particularly when the debt-servicing capacity of non-financial firms is low.   5.    Commercial policy, the terms of trade and the real exchange rate revisited Pages 81-99 John Devereux and Michael Connolly    We estimate the effects of commercial policy and changes in the external terms of trade on the real exchange rate for four Latin American economies using data on internal relative prices. We find that the greater the elasticity of the non-traded price level with respect to the price of importables, the larger is the real exchange rate effect of import restrictions but the smaller is the real exchange rate effect of changes in the external terms of trade.   6.    Foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries Pages 101-118 Pierre-Richard Agénor and Mohsin S. Khan    This paper examines the relative demands for domestic and foreign currency deposits by residents of developing countries. A dynamic currency substitution model that incorporates forward-looking rational expectations is specified and estimated for a group of ten developing countries. The results indicate that the foreign rate of interest and the expected rate of depreciation of the parallel market exchange rate are important factors in the choice between holding domestic money or foreign currency deposits abroad. Furthermore, the model appears to fit the data better than a conventional partial-adjustment model.   7.    Alternative econometric approaches for analysing the role of the financial sector in economic growth: Time-series evidence from LDCs Pages 119-146 M. O. Odedokun    The study determines and analyses the effects of financial intermediation on the growth of real GDP in LDCs by employing annual data for 71 countries over varying periods that generally span the 1960s and 1980s. Based on the modified version of the orthodox model framework and an entirely new model framework that recognizes the external effects of the financial sector on the real sector, as well as effects of the financial sector on the productivities of factor inputs engaged therein, we estimate regression equations for each country. Our findings are as follows: (a) financial intermediation promotes economic growth in about 85% of the countries; (b) as compared with factors that have often been emphasized in the literature (viz. export expansion, capital formation ratio and labour force growth) as important growth promoters, financial intermediation is practically at par with export expansion and capital formation ratio, and superior to labour force growth, as partners in promoting economic growth; (c) the growth-promoting effects of financial intermediation are more predominant in low-income than in high-income LDCs; and (d) the growth-promoting effects of financial intermediation are practically invariant across the various regions of the globe.   8.    Financial development by learning Pages 147-164 Jaewoo Lee    This paper analyzes financial development driven by accumulation of information through ‘learning by doing’. Financial intermediaries discover good investment opportunities by making loans to industrial projects; they thereby accumulate information that improves the allocation of savings. An initial equilibrium with poor information, and thus no industrial investment, may trap the economy in financial underdevelopment. Such a trap is informational and can be overcome by the remedies that resolve informational externality.   9.    Expenditure behavior and children's welfare: An analysis of female headed households in Jamaica Pages 165-187 Sudhanshu Handa    Evidence from Jamaica shows that the sex and union status of the household head can have a significant influence on household expenditure behavior with implications for individual household members. While the presence of a female decision maker generally increases the share of the household budget allocated to child and family goods, female headed households (FHHs) also spend more on adult wear and less on health. Lower health expenditures are partially offset by the differential use of other health inputs in FHHs. These differences in resource allocation may explain why poorer FHHs do not necessarily have lower children's outcomes in developing countries.   10.    Achievement and improvement in living standards Pages 189-195 Amita Majumder and Satya R. Chakravarty    Kakwani (1993) suggested some postulates for an index of improvement in the level of living of a population. He also suggested a particular class of improvement indices. In this paper we characterize axiomatically the entire Kakwani class of indices. We also derive a sufficient condition to avoid a non-comparability problem pointed out by Kakwani.   11.    Technology imports and R&D efforts of Korean manufacturing firms Pages 197-210 Jaymin Lee    This paper analyzes the relationship between technology imports and R&D efforts of Korean manufacturing firms by a two-stage method. In the first stage, using a sample representing the whole population of firms, the paper shows that firms importing technology tend to commit themselves to R&D efforts through having formal R&D institutes. In the second stage, it shows that among firms with formal R&D institutes, technology imports have non-complementary relationship with R&D efforts. Moreover, when technology imports are considered interactively with international inventive activity, they turn out to have rather a substitutive relationship with R&D efforts.   12.    Syndicated lending under asymmetric creditor information — Erratum Pages 211-212 Saugata Banerjee and Olivier Cadot

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eqzhri 发表于 2007-9-24 10:11:00

Volume 50, Issue 2, Pages 213-395 (August 1996)

157379.rar (8.19 MB, 需要: 30 个论坛币) Volume 50, Issue 2, Pages 213-395 (August 1996)1.    North-South knowledge spillovers and competition: convergence versus divergence Pages 213-232 Theo van de Klundert and Sjak Smulders    Technology spillovers from high-productivity countries in the North allow low-productivity countries in the South to improve productivity in high-tech sectors relatively easy. However, the South's share in world goods markets for high-tech products is relatively low, which reduces opportunities for learning by doing. Our simple Ricardian endogenous growth model shows how the balance between toughness of competition in trade and the strength of North-South spillovers determines whether productivity levels diverge, partially converge or fully converge in the long run. If convergence prevails, the North is confronted with declining employment in high-tech sectors. Temporary (trade) policy measures can turn a diverging economy into a converging one.   2.    Contracting for tacit knowledge: the provision of technical services in technology licensing contracts Pages 233-256 Ashish Arora    Recent research on the economic payoff from new technology has emphasized the importance of tacit knowledge or know-how. This paper shows that arm's length contract can overcome the problems in contracting for know-how by bundling complementary inputs with know-how in a technology package, and leveraging the superior enforceability of contracts over the latter. In the empirical part of this paper, the relationship between bundling and transfer of know-how is analyzed, using Indian data. The results imply that tied sales of inputs may increase the efficiency of contracts involving the transfer of know-how. A striking result, in the context of the current North-South debates on intellectual property rights, is the packaging of patents with know-how.   3.    Discount rates and credit markets: Theory and evidence from rural india Pages 257-296 John L. Pender    Three models of credit markets - (1) the permanent income model, (2) upward sloping credit supply to individual borrowers, and (3) constrained credit due to imperfect enforcement - are tested using credit market data and an experimental study of individuals' discount rates in south India. The permanent income model is rejected by both the discount rate and the credit market data. The discount rate data are consistent with either of the other two models, while the credit market data are consistent with a combination of these two models. Other explanations are found to be insufficient to explain the results of this study.   4.    Are there dual labor markets in Chile?: empirical evidence Pages 297-312 Michael Basch and Ricardo D. Paredes-Molina    In this paper we use a switching regression method to test the hypothesis that segmentation in the Chilean labor market exists. The results support the labor segmentation hypothesis and consequently they contradict those of Corbo and Stelcner (1983). The explanation for this is that we do not make any a priori definition of the population, as Corbo and Stelcner do. In fact, our results show that any a priori definition of the sample will lead to rejecting the segmentation hypothesis.   5.    Sovereign debt, structural adjustment, and conditionality Pages 313-335 Marcel Fafchamps    The lack of a proper enforcement mechanism for sovereign debt generates a commitment failure. As a result, a sovereign may seek to improve its position in debt renegotiations and thus evade its debt obligations by reducing exports. Conditionality seeks to provide a solution to the incentive problem by addressing the commitment failure. Formalizing this argument, we show that conditionality helps the repayment of sovereign debt. In certain circumstances, it can eliminate debt overhang, especially when it is coupled with concessionary lending of sufficient magnitude. It is, however, unable to restore first best. When it is anticipated by lenders, conditionality may get international financial institutions and sovereign debtors into a trap where the debt overhang persist, debt rescheduling takes place periodically, and conditionality continues indefinitely.   6.    “Burden sharing” in sovereign debt reduction Pages 337-351 Mark M. Spiegel    We examine a concerted debt reduction deal between a sovereign debtor, a private creditor, and an official creditor, who insures the deposits of the commercial bank. Our results show that a weakening of the financial position of the commercial bank reduces the contribution of the commercial bank and increases that of the official creditor, without affecting the net terms faced by the debtor. This result is robust to changes in seniority. Moreover, leaving both creditor values unchanged requires that commercial banks retire debt at “unfairly” high prices, while official creditors make a net contribution.   7.    Economic reform and interprovincial inequalities in China Pages 353-368 Kai-yuen Tsui    This note is an attempt to explore two issues: (1) the trend of interprovincial inequality in the post-1978 reform era in China; and (2) the factors behind the dynamics of interprovincial inequality. Using recently released provincial gross domestic product (GDP) data, we have shown that interprovincial inequality decreased in the fast half of the 1980s, but started to increase in the second half of the 1980s. To understand the impact of sectoral reforms on interprovincial inequality, the overall inequality in provincial per capita GDP is decomposed into the contributions by the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. It seems that the trend of interprovincial inequality has been largely induced by the reforms of the industrial sector which make up a large share of the secondary sector. In addition, national income data from the socialist national accounting system are used to identify the impact of interprovincial resource flows on interprovincial inequalities. The findings seem to suggest a relative decline in the role of redistributive budgetary transfers.   8.    Growth, welfare and optimal trade taxes: a fallacy of composition Pages 369-380 Subhayu Bandyopadhyay    Optimal export taxation rules out the possibility of immiserizing growth in a two-country world. Thus, productivity increases in the exporting sector must be welfare improving. This paper shows that in a multicountry world such reasoning commits a fallacy of composition. Simultaneous growth of exporting nations can lead to welfare losses in the presence of unilaterally optimal export taxes. Also, optimal export taxes can decline in response to such growth. This result further strengthens the possibility of perverse welfare movements. Thus, standard policy recommendations of increasing productivity in the exporting sector may lead to unintended and self-defeating outcomes.   9.    Locational choice for free trade zones: a comment Pages 381-387 Arnab K. Basu    In this comment we derive conditions under which there are no equilibria for the models investigated by Miyagiwa (1993).   10.    Strategic processes in Monsoon Asia's Economic Development : Harry T. Oshima (The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1993) pp. xii + 285 Pages 389-392 Keijiro Otsuka    11.    Development finance as institution building: A new approach to poverty-oriented banking : Jan Pieter Krahnen and Reinhard H. Schmidt, Westview Press, Boulder, USA, 1994, 145 pp., US $45.00, ISBN 0-8133-2457-2 Pages 392-395 Thomas Hellman

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Volume 46, Issue 2, Pages 203-412 (April 1995)

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Volume 48, Issue 2, Pages 225-480 (March 1996)

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[公告] Journal of Development Economics（1995-2008）持续更新中 [推广有奖]

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Volume 46, Issue 2, Pages 203-412 (April 1995)

Volume 47, Issue 1, Pages 1-178 (June 1995)

Volume 47, Issue 2, Pages 179-504 (August 1995)

Volume 48, Issue 1, Pages 1-223 (October 1995)

Volume 48, Issue 2, Pages 225-480 (March 1996)

Volume 49, Issue 1, Pages 1-270 (April 1996)

Volume 49, Issue 2, Pages 271-411 (May 1996)

Volume 50, Issue 1, Pages 1-212 (June 1996)

Volume 50, Issue 2, Pages 213-395 (August 1996)

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