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【篇幅】PDF74
【日期】20130718
【摘要】
*Correction: Original version had missing sentences in the first and second bullets and
erroneously stated we expect a strong CNY policy.
Growth risks from Fed Taper to impact “deficit” and portfolio-dependent
countries more. We think this is a bigger concern for current account deficit countries
(India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia – we shaved our growth forecast in the latter two) and
more recently, Thailand (we also downgraded growth forecast). Malaysia also looks
relatively vulnerable given the large role of portfolio inflows.
Ability of monetary conditions to adjust varies. Indonesia is under the most
pressure to hike policy rates, to mitigate the impact of its external imbalances amid
already high inflation, especially as it is pursuing a less flexible exchange rate policy.
India unexpectedly pursued measures aimed at curbing INR volatility by tightening
liquidity & ST borrowing costs. Given weak growth and moderating core, we believe
these measures are time-bound, and still don't expect a policy hike, though policy
easing outlook has been clearly compromised by INR concerns. China's tightening of
funding conditions was self-inflicted but the Taper environment didn't help as capital
outflows exacerbated the tightening -- we expect an end to strong CNY policy. Many
other countries will keep policy rates on hold for longer given benign inflation, and
loosen monetary conditions via weaker FX.
China growth risks will likely hurt the more trade-linked economies BUT… East
Asia looks more exposed to China slowdown risk relative to other regions, and will be a
bigger risk to China-trade linked economies (Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong), followed
by Korea and Malaysia.
…there are offsets from US/Japan; Asia’s exports showing tentative signs of life.
Excluding China’s trade data distortion, Asia’s exports are showing stabilization to mild
rebound; tech exports from KR & TW are leading the way. We think, for the near term,
a US growth upturn alongside a resilient JP rebound will more than offset the impact of
a downside growth risk in CN (assuming 7% quarterly growth floor is maintained). Over
the medium to longer term, the prognosis much more uncertain. Despite some caveats,
OEF model simulations show that the impact of a positive US growth shock on EM
Asia, on average, is about 30% larger than the impact of a similarly-sized negative
growth shock from China.
Philippines seem the most insulated to both Fed Taper & China slowdown. It has
a very strong net external position, making it more insulated from taper; PHP weakness
has generated a positive income shock via to the remittance channel; BSP is still
easing liquidity; and it has limited trade linkages to CN demand.
Market implications - Within Asia FX, we remain underweight IDR, INR, THB & MYR,
neutral PHP, and relatively more positive on the cyclical currencies of TWD, KRW, SGD.
On local rates, we may be in a period of some consolidation but the steepening bias is
likely to persist as tapering kicks in—underweight MY, TH bonds, we like steepeners in
KRW swaps, we remain cautious IDR bonds given supply risk and BI’s renewed post-hike
“dovishness” but, as inflation momentum is soon to peak, and BI relents on FX
adjustment, we would look to add duration. A less risky way to play Indo in the near-term
is in external debt -- it has become one of the cheapest sovereigns in IG space.
CITIC asia macro and strategy outlook.pdf
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