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Citigroup 花旗：
2007年10月全球主要股指及商品期货指数详解(技术分析) 49页
18 October 2007 49 pages
Next Wave October 2007
This year’s second big reversal: Prepare for second upheaval
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Major market trends — Lower interest rates in the US have fueled new upside
for global equity markets from mid-August, but we believe a reversal is in the
wings. If the current rallies continue, we expect stock markets throughout the
world—including China—to peak in October, and for the dollar to begin
weakening again against the yen. We believe long-term bond yields could see
further declines from October.
Nikkei 225 — We believe the Nikkei’s intermediate rally from 15,273 (8/17)
will peak around 17,800, giving way to a second declining leg in late October.
Nikkei Jasdaq average — A sustained decline through mid-October to 1,790 or
lower could give the Nikkei Jasdaq average a medium-term bottom. The TSE
Mothers Index may have bottomed at 620 (9/18).
Overseas equities — The rally for US stocks has been extended, but we believe
medium-term waves could peak around 14,190 or at most around 15,300 for
the DJIA, and at around 2,790 or around 2,830 for the NASDAQ Composite.
Chinese stocks may also be overheating. We expect peaks for the Hang Seng
and SSE Composite in October.
Commodities — Strong rallies are continuing for oil, non-ferrous metals,
precious metals, and grain. We believe rises will continue to $90 or higher for
oil and $9,000 or better for LME copper. We expect the rally for NY gold to
extend through 2008 H1 and approach $1,000.
Interest rates — We believe the downtrend for interest rates, which began in
June, will continue through February 2008. After a near-term correction, JGB
futures could rise to ¥139, while we believe US 10-year T-note yields could fall
to 4.1% by spring 2008.
Forex — We expect the dollar to begin weakening against the yen again from
late October after the current rebound peaks at around ¥118.6 or around
¥120.6. We think the dollar could fall through ¥105 in 2008 H1.
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