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英文文献：Environmental and socio-economic consequences of forest carbon payments in Bolivia: Results of the OSIRIS-Bolivia model-玻利维亚森林碳支付的环境和社会经济后果:奥西里斯-玻利维亚模式的结果
英文文献作者：Lykke Andersen,Jonah Busch,Elizabeth Curran,Juan Carlos Ledezma,Joaquín Mayorga,Mélissa Bellier
英文文献摘要：
Bolivia has significant potential to abate climate change by reducing deforestation. This opportunity presents economic and environmental tradeoffs. While these tradeoffs have been hotly debated, they have as yet been the subject of little quantitative analysis. We introduce the OSIRIS-Bolivia model to provide a quantitative basis for decision-making. OSIRIS-Bolivia is an Excel-based tool for analyzing the potential effects of incentive payments to reduce emissions from deforestation (REDD) in Bolivia. It is based on a spatial econometric model of deforestation in Bolivia during the period 2001-2005, and uses information on forest cover, deforestation rates, geographical conditions, and drivers of deforestation, including agricultural opportunity costs, for more than 120,000 pixels covering the whole country. OSIRIS-Bolivia is based on a partial equilibrium model in which reductions in deforestation in one region reduce the supply of agricultural products to the domestic market, which in turn causes an increase in the price of agricultural products, making conversion of land to agriculture more attractive and thus stimulating an increase in deforestation in other regions (leakage). The model can help answer questions such as: Where in Bolivia are carbon incentive payments most likely to result in reduced deforestation? Who are most likely to benefit from REDD? How much money will it take to reduce deforestation by a given amount? To what extent might transaction costs or preferences for agricultural income undermine the goals of the REDD program?
玻利维亚有很大的潜力通过减少森林砍伐来减缓气候变化。这个机会带来了经济和环境的权衡。尽管人们对这些权衡进行了激烈的辩论，但迄今还很少进行定量分析。我们引入奥西里斯-玻利维亚模型，为决策提供定量基础。osiris -玻利维亚是一种基于卓越的工具，用于分析玻利维亚减少森林砍伐排放(REDD)的奖励支付的潜在影响。它以2001-2005年期间玻利维亚森林砍伐的空间计量经济学模型为基础，使用了关于森林覆盖、森林砍伐率、地理条件和森林砍伐的驱动因素(包括农业机会成本)的信息，覆盖了整个国家超过12万像素。OSIRIS-Bolivia是基于一个局部均衡模型,减少砍伐森林在一个地区减少农产品的供应国内市场,进而导致农产品价格的增加,使得农业土地转换更具吸引力,从而刺激增加其它地区的森林砍伐(泄漏)。这个模型可以帮助回答这样的问题:碳奖励支付在玻利维亚的什么地方最有可能导致森林砍伐的减少?谁最有可能从REDD中受益?要减少一定数量的森林砍伐需要多少资金?交易成本或对农业收入的偏好会在多大程度上破坏REDD计划的目标?
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