CICC-房地产行业季报-Property Sector 1~3Q Review

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CICC-房地产行业季报-Property Sector 1~3Q Review
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关键词：property sector Review 房地产行业 Secto 房地产 CICC property 季报 sector

价格公道

Contents
Key Issue: Can New Housing Loan Policy Change the Property Sector’s Up-trend? .........4
We believe property prices will keep growing, albeit more slowly.............................................4
Tightening policies’ impacts on property company valuations ...................................................6
Property sector 1~3Q07 performance review..............................................................................9
Investment strategy .....................................................................................................................9
Stock picking..............................................................................................................................9
Valuation Analysis ....................................................................................................................13
Valuation of A-share, B-share, H-share and local HK property listcos .....................................13
Raise H-share and B-share target prices....................................................................................13
Valuation of property listcos around the world .........................................................................14
1~3Q07 Industry Data..............................................................................................................16
Economic growth accelerated ...................................................................................................16
Slow growth in completion area; insufficient supply drives up housing prices ........................17
Property prices continued to spike in September (NBS data) ...................................................18
Leading indicators point to a potential increase in supply ........................................................20
Property developers under increasing funding pressure............................................................20
Regional Market Analysis ........................................................................................................21
Supply in Shanghai property market still tight amid heavy sales..............................................21
Supply in Beijing is still tight amid stable sales........................................................................23
Supply and demand both slipped in Shenzhen; impact of new policies on sales significant ....25
Property Sales in Main Cities....................................................................................................27