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雷达卡
1. underwriting profit 是指 earned premium-administrative expenses; 那insurance profit是指什么？应该不是net profit吧？为什么说underwriting loss and insurance profit是不好的？
2. 这道题我做了a.b的部分，但是不知道development ratio 能证明什么，所以不会分析后面的题目。。。。。所以想问问该怎么做后面的小题。
You are a consulting actuary being hired by a general insurance company to review its outstanding claims provision as at 31 December 2012. This insurance company has been selling engineering construction business which covers large construction projects which lasts between 3-8 years. The policies cover for the entire duration of the project. You have been provided with the claims development triangle for the cumulative incurred claims since the 2009 calendar year. The cumulative incurred claim amounts have been expressed in dollar value as at 31 December 2012 :
Cumulative Incurred Claims by Accident and Development Years ($ 000)
Development year
Accident year This year Next year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5+ years
2007 5 425 8 023 10 248 11 255 11 777 12 067
2008 8 561 10 546 12 295 12 985 13 684
2009 5 085 6 118 9 232 10 756
2010 5 063 6 859 9 658
2011 37 292 59 977
2012 46 723
(a) Comment on the observed data trend. How may the global financial crisis, which began in late 2007, contribute to this?
(b) Calculate the claims development ratios for each accident and development year with respect to claims in the accident years 2007-2010. Discuss your results.
那个ratio我算了放在最上面那个图。。。。。
(c) In relation to 2011, one of the clients is a well-known construction contractor which had delayed the delivery of a large construction project due to poor weather and industrial disputes. As a result, this contractor has reported a claim in relation to the late penalty charged by their client. This amount is expected to be subject to further negotiations and may increase. Let us assume that this claim amount is worth $30 million in the first development year and is expected to be $50 million in the subsequent year. Does the development ratio with respect to claims in this accident year follow the trend calculated in b.)?
(d) As a result of the peaking of the mining boom in Australia, the 2012 year has seen some significant mining project delays and cancellations. This has led to increased claims by policyholders resulting from compensation being paid to clients for broken contracts。 Comment on the suitability of your results in b.) in projecting future claims.
(e) What further information may you need to assist you in completing this exercise of projecting the required outstanding claims reserve? What obstacles do you expect to face?
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