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【机构】美银美林
【篇幅】PDF75
【时间】20131009
【摘要】
Sector view: Positive
We are initiating coverage on the Chinese oil and gas onshore services sector. We
have a positive sector view, largely driven by China and global oils’ increased
spending on E&P, and the expansion of the service market led by rising
unconventional or difficult gas wells. Two types of oil and gas service firms make up
our new coverage: 1) oilfield service providers (Anton), and 2) oil equipment
suppliers (Hilong and Honghua).
China oils’ E&P capex set to rise 6% pa in 2013-15
PetroChina and Sinopec have both guided slower growth in total capex from 2013,
but we believe the E&P segment will not see an impact because sustained capex
growth is required for China’s energy security and to meet the government’s desired
target for natural gas utilization.
Catalysts for Buy-rated stocks
Hilong (1623 HK, initiate at Buy): 1) potential new partnership or sales agreement
with global peers or customers; 2) first coating service contract for offshore shallowwater
pipelines; 3) potential announcement of high-spec rig new-build plan for
operation in Nigeria, and 4) startup of new coating plants in Shaanxi in 2014.
COSL (2883 HK, maintain Buy): 1) potential acquisition of additional offshore rigs
in 4Q13, and 2) further growth of CNOOC’s budgeted E&P capex in 2014 to be
announced in Jan 2014.
Top pick: Hilong - Diversified business, sustainable growth
Within the China oil and gas service space, we favor the names with sustainable
growth and reasonable valuations. Our positive view on Hilong is driven by the
following:
1) Consumable nature of drill pipes supports demand growth (global demand grows
10% pa and Hilong accounts for 16% of the market);
2) Increased non-API drill pipes in the product mix to boost margins;
3) Coating business driven by new capacity and potential new orders for shallowwater
line pipe coating;
4) New rigs to service in Pakistan and Nigeria to drive 2014/15 growth in oilfield
services;
5) Most diversified customer base vs peers;
6) Low exposure to PetroChina/CNPC which accounted for 13% of total revenue in
2012 (vs 80-85% for SPT and 60-65% for Anton).
20131008-BofA Merrill Lynch-Initiating on China oil and gas service sector： Ris.pdf
(3.45 MB, 需要: 15 个论坛币)
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